环境影响矩阵法对渤海航道溢油影响评估

1 Introduction

With increasing amount of goods transported by sea,the frequent oil spill from ship has become one of the major factors for marine environment pollution.Statistics show that in 2016 the world's seaborne trade increased by 2.6%over the previous year,reached 10.11 billion tons and accounted for 84%of total global trade.The spread of oil spill at sea is governed by the complex interaction among currents,winds,waves,tides and density plumes,and it is indeed a complex physical,chemical and hydrodynamic process[1].Generally,the affected area isvery large and the consequence tends to be severe.The damage brought by oil spills is related to two factors:the harm of the oil itself and environmental conditions.For example,whether the location of oil spill is ecologically sensitive,the oil spill occurs in the fish breeding period or harvest period,the damage it caused would be different[2].Thus,the consequences of oil spill vary with the time and location that it occurs.It is often assumed that coastal areas especially those protected by local or regional authorities are the most valuable areas.In fact,such areas have the richest but also the most sensitive flora and fauna.Usually,these regions arenot only highly populated but also under extremely high and ever increasing anthropogenic pressure.To maintain the existing quality of the environment and to reach desirable restore of the healthy ecosystem,adequate protection of valuable and vulnerable areas may suffer from oil spill incidents still remains a challenge[3].

The commonly used approach to manage potential maritime oil pollution is to develop quick remedial action plans in the oil spill event.For example,many models have successfully simulated the behavior and fate of oil spill[4-6],which can provide useful information support for handling oil spills.Keramitsoglou et al.[7]presented a complete decision support system for managing marine pollution events caused by oil spills.This system can provide all the necessary tools for early detecting oil spills from satellite imagesand for providing support to responsiblepublic authoritiesduring clean-up operations.Another rapidly developing approach is the preventive maritime planning and decision-making strategy.Eide et al.[8]proposed a model based on AIS(Automatic Identification System),which could estimate the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers.Although there are successful attempts to track the three-dimensional propagation of oil spills,tracking the pathways of pollution particles and the affected regions is not easy even in a small sea area[9].A feasible way is to use statistical methods to determine the risk of shipping-related oil pollution.Recently,some researchers used particle tracking model and statistical methods to determine the risk of shipping-related oil pollution and their results might provide some useful information for preventive maritime planning[10,11].

Global Port Development Report 2016 published by Shanghai International Shipping Institute shows that in 2016 three out top ten ports with the highest handling capacity in the world are located along the Bohai Sea of China.Thus,the traffic density in this area is quite high.In addition,the Bohai Sea is surrounded by many national nature reserves,which are habitats for many rare species.The areas near national nature reserves are often valuable and vulnerable and thus should receive full protection.With the growing density of traffic in the Bohai Sea,it is necessary to study the risk of potential oil pollution there.In the past,the management of such environmental risks has focused on managing small areas around the accident site.However,the marine environment is not static and oil spills can be transported by various met-ocean drivers to other regions.Over a substantial time period,oil released into the sea may severely damage the ecosystem or society even in seemingly remote and safe locations[12].Generally,many of the accidents associated with oil spills occur along fairways,but it is often not easy to identify exactly which area will be affected.Hence,the potential impact of oil spill in a large scale and long term should be studied.

This paper focused on the oil spill impact in the Bohai Sea.Firstly,five areas around national nature reserves near the Bohai Sea were selected as environmental sensitive areas (ESAs).Then,seven main fairways in the Bohai Sea were chosen as potential risky areas where oil spills might occur.An unstructured-grid,finite-volume coastal ocean model,coupled with the Lagrangian particle tracking model,was used to analyze the long-range current-driven transport of oil in the surface layer.On this basis,the potential exposure of ESAs to shipping-related oil pollution in the Bohai Sea was studied.Statistical technique was used to establish an environmental impact matrix.This could help reveal the relationship between oil spills in fairways and the pollution of ESAs and further identify ESAs that were under high risk of pollution caused by oil spills in fairways.Finally,the magnitude of effects of oil spills in these fairways and the risk of each ESA suffering from pollution caused by these oil spills are summarized.

2 Methods

2.1 Study area

The Bohai Sea,located in northeastern China,is a semi-enclosed shallow sea with the shape of"C".It has average and maximum depths of 18 m and 80 m,respectively[13].The Bohai Sea has a lot of valuable resources and is also one of the areas with the most intensive traffic network in China.With the rapid growth of regional economy,the density of traffic in the Bohai Sea has recently become even higher.Thus,the risk of pollution caused by ships has increased a lot.For example,the Portuguese oil tanker"Arteaga",fully loaded with crude oil,struck a rock formation while entering Dalian New port on April 3 2005.This accident caused the release of hundreds of tons of heavy oil into the sea[14].A collision between Korean"Golden Rose"and Saint Vincent's"Jeshing"occurred in the Bohai Sea,which caused 120 tons of oil to spill into the sea.The Bohai Sea is very vulnerable to oil spills at any scale,since it is not only economically but also ecologically important.Ithas wetlands,tidal flats,and estuaries with moderate salinity and temperature,which are habitats for a wide variety of birds,fish,mussels and other species.According to the data published by the State Oceanic Administration of China,there are seven national nature reserves around the Bohai Sea (Tab.1),and five areas around them were selected as ESAs(Fig.1b)in this study.The location of fairways was obtained from China Maritime Electronic Chart Data Center,as shown in Fig.1a.

Tab.1 National Nature Reserves around the Bohai Sea and their locations

National nature reserve Province Location Binzhou shell Dyke island Shandong 38°8'8.04"N 118°20'55.23"E Changdao Shandong 37°49'10.77"N 120°45'5.90"E Changli gold coast Hebei 39°41'36.31"N 119°20'2.20"E Tianjin wetland nature reserve Tianjin 39°11'18.71"N 119°00'25.31"E Dalian spotted seal national nature reserve Liaoning 38°52'24.48"N 121°36'29.40"E Shuangtai estuary Liaoning 40°50'58.22"N 121°35'35.12"E Shedao-Laotieshan Liaoning 38°53'33.90"N 121°05'3.02"E

Fig.1 The reserch area with(a)seven fairways and(b)five ESAs.

2.2 Hydrodynamic model

Many tools (such as ECOM,FVCOM,MIKE,etc.)have been used to develop hydrodynamic models for the Bohai Sea.In this paper,a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the Bohai Sea was developed using MIKE,a numerical simulation software developed by the Danish Institute of Water Conservancy.The computational domains included the whole Bohai Sea and the north part of the Yellow Sea.Digital coastal line was extracted from the remote sensing image data of US terrestrial resource satellites and bathymetry data was obtained from the Liaodong Bay chart and the Bohai Bay chart published by People'sLiberation Army Navy Command Department of Navigation.Unstructured grid was generated by SMS,and the grid in the domain near the off-shore and the islands was refined.The maximum mesh length was 5000 m and the minimum mesh length was less than 500 m (Fig.2).Dynamic time step technology is used to find the solution to the shallow water equation.The minimum time step was 0.01 s and the maximum time step was 30 s.

The maximum values ofPiandEjwere 20.55 and 2.78,respectively (P2andE4).Furthermore,many particles released at Fairway 3 entered Z1,and many particles released at Fairway 2 entered Z3 (Fig.9).This phenomenon indicated that oil spills in Fairways 3 and 2 might pose a threat to Z1 and Z3,respectively.There were a wide variety of pollutants existing in Z4 and Z5,which was similar to the short-term case.

Fig.2 The mesh of research area

Chengshantou-Dandong connection (122°42′14.6124″E,37°23′35.8656″N-123°59′52.3020″E,39°47′27.6815″N)was chosen as the open boundary,and four major harmonic constants (M2,S2,K1 and O1)were taken as the initial conditions for open boundary conditions.Cold start was taken with zero initial condition.The model run for two months and then the elevation data in the last month was used for reconciliation analysis.The hydrodynamic results were used as the initial condition for thermal start model.On the basis of this condition,we constructed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic field of the domain in 2014.As shown in Fig.3 the simulation results of elevation,current velocity and current direction were consistent with the measured data (Due to space restrictions,two verifications of current were given).We have a harmonic analysis of the simulated data,with four major tides (Fig.4)fitting well withMarine atlas of Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,East China Sea:Hydrology.Thus,the hydrodynamic model can be used for subsequent particle tracking calculation.

2.3 Lagrangian particle tracking model

It is worth mentioning that in this study we do not make a precise simulation of the oil spill.At a given moment,we have proven methods to simulate oil spill but when we are faced with problem of environmental planning and management in large space and time scale,it is hard and unnecessary to develop an accurate model[12,15].Oil spills are transported mainly by winds,waves and currents.Wind patterns can be complicated.When averaged over a long time,however,winds tend to blow in one direction.Waves largely follow the wind direction.By contrast,the patterns of currents are more complicated,even when averaged over a long time[10].In other words,the threat of wind and waves are quite obvious well the threat of currents is more complicated and not intuitive.In thispaper,wind effectswereignored from the perspectiveof marine environmental management.The properties of oil,such as emulsification or evaporation,were also not considered.The focus was on the currents.The oil spills were assumed to be transported with the surface currents without sinking and resurfacing.No wind or wave effects were considered.A three-dimensional transport model based on hydrodynamic model and Lagrangian particle tracking model was then coupled to calculate the risk of oil pollution.The particle tracking technique describing transport and dispersion of particles follows Langevin equation,attempts were made by Langevin and others to formulate the dynamics of such motions in terms of stochastic differential equations.The resulting equations were written as(Eq.1).

在发生突发事故的时候，相关工作人员可以采用微机对事故进行分析。通过微机得出相关资料之后，针对具体故障来展开全面维修。图1表示了电力系统继电保护与事故信息处理系统的工作情况。

Fig.3 Verification of Current(tidal station G and H)

The dispersion is described by the non-liner Langevin equation,which is the base of random walk models.The applied random walk method is a simple numerical solution to the Langevin equation.The stochastic differential equation is solved with an explicit Euler scheme:

Forn=1,2,3,…,according to Euler scheme with drift a and diffusion coefficient b.HereWn=Wt-Ws∈ N(μ=0,σ2=Δn)is the normal distributed Gaussian increment of the Wiener processW,which is a continuous time Gaussian stochastic process with independent increments over the subinterval τn≤t≤τn+1.

The drift vector in Eq(1)is normally varying in space,as shown in Eq (3),it represents the combined effects of current and wind drag that cause the advection of the particles.

研究区内属暖温带季风型大陆性气候，四季分明，气候温和，年平均风速3.5m/s，多年平均气温11.4℃(1979—2017年)，多年平均降水量648.27mm(1979—2017年)，多年平均蒸发量1745.7mm，多年平均无霜期199d[1]。

In systems with turbulent flows the diffusion consists of both molecular diffusion and turbulent dispersion,which the turbulent part is normally by far more important.Both molecular and turbulent dispersion can be described by random walks using the Langevin equation

To simulate a trajectory of the Euler approximationYfor a given time discretization,we simply start from the initial valueY0=X0and processed recursively to generate the next value.

where:N (0,1)is standard normal distribution (μ=0,σ2=1);σLis standard deviation of turbulent dispersionDis dispersion coefficient.

The number of particles released in each fairway was determined according to the length of the fairway(Tab.2).Generally,because of the volatile nature of the oil itself and the delay of remedial actions,most part of the effect of oil spills would fade away within about 20 days.Nevertheless,some emulsions of oil and metal compounds would have a long-term effect on the marine environment for more than one year[16].In this paper,two simulation periods were used:20 days for short term and 180 days for long term.Thus,the effect of oil spills could be studied at different time scales.For the short term case,the simulation was repeated 12 times from 0:00 to 11:00 on May 31,2014.The particles were released every hour and the average of the 12 simulation results was taken to eliminate the effects of different release time on particle distribution.In fact,this was done in consideration of that tidal currents in the Bohai Sea were all normally semi-diurnal tide with a period of 12~13 h[17].Our experience showed the effects of release time tended to be quite weak when simulation time was longer than 30 days.Thus,for the long term case,simulation was conducted for only one time without repeat,and the release time was still at 0:00 on May 31,2014.The number of particles that reached different ESAs by the end of a simulation period was recorded in each of run.

Tab.2 Number of released particles

Fairway number Start point End point Length(km) Number of particles 1 Tianjin harbor Laotieshan 275.63 10 000 2 Tianjin harbor Changdao 269.84 9 718 3 Yingkou harbor Laotieshan 234.04 8 491 4 Laotieshan Weihai 206.27 7 484 5 Changdao Weihai 200.91 7 289 6 Qinhuangdao Laotieshan 178.63 6 481 7 Dalian harbor Yantai harbor 164.22 5 958

2.4 Environmental impact matrix setting

From the matrixR,it was easy to find that theithrow represented the pollution effect of oil particles released at theithfairway on each of the five ESAs,and theithcolumn represented the pollution effect of oil particles released at each of the seven fairways on thejthESA.

wherei=[1,2,…,7]represents the number of each fairway,j=[1,2,…,5]represents the number of each ESA,Cijrepresents the number of oil particles released at theith fairway that entered thejthESA,andTirepresents the total number of particles released at theithfairway.

On the basis ofCijandRij,two environmental impact matrices were built to more clearly reveal the internal relationship between oil spills in fairways and pollution of ESAs.The matrices were as follows:

唐山市位于河北省东部，北依燕山，南临渤海，西部和南部有329万亩（22万 hm2）低洼易涝区，历史上十年九涝，粮食产量低而不稳。新中国成立后，经过不断治理，现全市建有2 m3/s以上国管泵站73座，装机总功率4.53万kW，多年来发挥了显著的除涝治碱效益。但这些泵站大多兴建于20世纪六七十年代，建设标准低，机电设备质量差，有近70%的泵站超期服役，机组效率低，能耗高，控制排灌面积逐年减少，达不到原来的设计要求。

where a is drift term,b is diffusion term andξis random number.

It was assumed that ESAs would be influenced by the oil spill once the oil particles entered these areas.Naturally,if more particles reached a specific area,then the effects of oil spill on this area would be much greater.Rijis defined as the probability that particles released at theithfairway reached thejthESA.It represented the pollution effect of oil spills in theithfairway onjthESA.

The values in each row of the matrixRwere summed as follows.

wherePirepresents the pollution effects of oil particles released atithfairway on all the five ESAs.

“《真相》不是《檀香刑》式的史诗写作，不是《白鹿原》式的宏大叙事，但是，《包法利夫人》不是史诗，《了不起的盖茨比》也不是宏大叙事，却一样名垂青史。承认《檀香刑》的创作地位，并不是否定《包法利夫人》的文学价值。进不了厚重之门，就走轻盈路线——米兰·昆德拉或者卡尔维诺就提倡轻小说，刀重剑轻，各有招数。”一旦沉入文学的世界，一杭眼中便没有任何人存在。

The values in each column of the matrix C were summed and the ration of the sum to the total number of particles released at seven fairways was calculated,whereEj represented the risk ofjthESA suffering from pollution caused by oil spills in all the seven fairways.

From these variables,the following question can be answered:Which area would be severely affected?In which fairway would oil spills pose higher threat to a specific area?In which fairway would oil spills have stronger environmental effects?

3 Results

3.1 Analysis of short-term impact

Simulation resultsof the distribution of oil particlesover a 20-day period are analyzed.The distribution of oil particles released at Fairways 1 and 6 were shown in Figs.6 and 7,respectively.In each figure,the simulation results at two release time were presented.Clearly,the effect of release time on particle distribution was insignificant over the 20-day period.Most particles would not deviate far away from the fairway after 20 days of transportation,and the longest deviation distance of particles from each fairway ranged from about 40~50 km,Thus,this distance might be taken as the maximum impact distance of particles released at each fairway in the short term.

式中：TH为湖南节假日期间客流量的增加值，S为节假日的时长，相关系数R=0.965 8，方程拟合度较高，即节假日每增加(或减少)一天，客流量将增加(或减少)2 799.6人次。

Fig.6 The distribution of particles released at Fairway 1 over a 20-day period

Fig.7 The distribution of particles released at Fairway 6 over a 20-day period

The values ofRij,PiandEjfor the analysis of short-term impact are shown in Tab.3.To clearly reveal the internal relationship between oil spills in fairways and the pollution of ESAs,Fig.8 was presented.Rijranged from 0 to 22.24.The minimum values ofPiand Ejwere both 0(Ps,E1andE3).The peak values of them were 22.57 and 6.02(P2andE5),respectively.Note that a large proportion of particles released at Fairways 7 and 1 entered Z4 and Z5 (Tab.3).In fact,there were a wide variety of pollutants existing in Z4 and Z5(Fig.7).

碳酸氢钠（化学式：N aH CO3）俗称小苏打，白色细小晶体，在水中的溶解度小于苏打，溶液呈弱碱性，加热易分解。

3.2 Analysis of long-term impact

Fig.9 showed the distribution of oil particles over a 180-day period.Particles released at Fairway 1 mainly distribute in on the Bohai Bay and the center of the study area.Particles released at Fairway 2 were mainly concentrated in the Bohai Bay and itsnortheast part near Qinhuangdao.Also,a proportion of particles released at Fairway 2 were distributed in the north part of the Laizhou Bay and along the south coast of the Bohai Sea.Particles released at Fairway 3 were distributed along the east coast of Bohai Sea,mainly gathering in the Liaodong Bay and the center of the study area.Particles released at Fairway 4 were distributed on both sides of it,covering the central and eastern part of the study area.Most particles released at Fairway 5 were concentrated in the Yellow sea,and a small proportion of particles spread along south coast of the Bohai Sea.Particles released at Fairway 6 were mainly concentrated in the center of the study area,and some particles were close to the east,west and south coast of the Bohai Sea.Particles released at Fairway 7 were distributed in the Bohai strait,its two sides and some areas of the Yellow Sea.

Tab.3 The values ofRij,PiandEjfor the analysis of short-term impact

Fairways ESA Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Pi 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.95 17.32 20.27 2 0.00 3.85 0.00 11.29 7.43 22.57 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 1.78 2.14 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.75 4.75 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 0.00 3.92 0.00 0.00 5.79 9.71 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.24 0.00 22.24 Ej 0.00 1.13 0.00 4.96 6.02

Fig.8 Environmental impact of oil spills in different fairways on different ESAs(short term)

Asshown in Fig.10 and Tab.4,because of long term transportation,the environment impact of oil spills in each fairway was generally less significant than the short-term environment impact.Especially,P1decreased from 20.27 to 0.05,indicating that the pollution effects of oil spills in Fairway 1 had decreased over a long period.However,some area that seemed to be safe in short term might become polluted in long term.For example,E1andE3were both 0 in short term,but they increased to 1.21 and 2.13,respectively,in long term.This implied that Z1 and Z3 had a high risk of being polluted over a long period.

Fig.9 The distribution of particles released at seven Fairways over the 180-day period

“动脉粥样硬化”是现代医学的病名，中医古籍并无其记载，AS可累及全身动脉，主要发病于心、脑、肾和下肢动脉等，根据其发病部位和临床表现的不同常将其归属于“胸痹心痛”“眩晕”“中风”“健忘”“痴呆”“肾痹”“脱疽”等范畴。本病病位在脉，临床多由血管超声或CTA而发现，为痰浊、瘀血等有形实邪瘀滞血脉而形成，有学者提出脉与血管在解剖学上具有同一性，故“脉痹”或“脉积”更能反映本病的病理特征。

wherem=7 andn=5.

下过大雨，你来看看葡萄园吧，那叫好看！白的像白玛瑙，红的像红宝石，紫的像紫水晶，黑的像黑玉。一串一串，饱满、瓷棒、挺括，璀璨琳琅。

Tab.4 The values ofRij,PiandEjfor the analysis of long-term impact

ESA Fairway Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Pi 1 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.05 2 0.00 3.88 12.14 4.53 0.00 20.55 3 7.91 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.91 11.82 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.97 4.53 10.50 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.65 0.55 2.20 6 0.00 0.17 0.00 1.36 4.80 6.33 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 4.70 10.73 Ej 1.21 0.70 2.13 2.78 2.20

Fig.10 Environmental impact of oil spills in different fairways on different ESAs(long term)

3.3 Classification of pollution effects of oil spills in fairways and pollution risk of ESAs

The pollution effects of oil spills in a specific fairway on all five ESAs(i.e.,Pi)and the risk of each ESA suffering from pollution caused by oil spills in all seven fairways(i.e.,Ej)were classified as shown in Tab.5 and Tab.6.

Tab.5 Classification of

?

Tab.6 Classification of

Level of pollution risk Definition High Ej≥4%Medium 4% ≥Ej≥1%Low Ej≤1%

ESAs with different levels of pollution risk and Fairways with different levels of pollution effects in short term and long term were shown in Fig.11.We can clearly know that in short term,two ESAs (Z4 and Z5)would have high risks of being polluted,three fairways (Fairway1,2 and 7)would have high pollution effects.On contrast,in long term,due to the effects of prolonged transport and diffusion,risks of Z2,Z4and Z5 would decrease,while in Z1 and Z3,the risks would increase a lot.Furthermore,pollution effects of fairways also changed:the effect of Fairway1 decreased a lot,would have low effect in long term,the effect of Fairway3 would increase and became medium in long term.

Fig.11 Fairways with different levels of pollution effects and ESAs with different levels of pollution risk

4 Conclusions

This paper focused on potential ship-related oil pollution in the Bohai Sea of China.An environmental impact matrix was built to reveal the relationship between the pollution of ESAs and oil spills in fairways.ESAs that were under high risk of oil pollution and fairways in which oil spills would have strong environmental impacts were identified.The major findings were as follows.

(1)In short term,Z4 and Z5 had high risk of being polluted by oil spills,whereas Z1 and Z3 had low risk of being polluted.Oil spills in Fairways 1,2 and 7 were assumed to have high pollution effects,whereas oil spills in Fairway 5 would have insignificant impact on each ESA.Many oil particles released at Fairways 7 and 1 would enter Z4 and Z5.

(2)In long term,Z1,Z3 and Z4 were assumed to have medium risk of being polluted by oil spills.Oil spills in Fairway 3 had strong pollution effects,whereas oil spills in Fairway 1 had weak pollution effects.Many particles released at Fairways 3 and 2 would enter Z1 and Z3.

据示范观察，该品种属偏春性品种，植株较矮，平均株高70cm左右，株型紧凑，穗层整齐，根系发达，分蘖力较强，成穗率高，籽粒灌浆饱满，千粒重高，产量三因素协调，丰产潜力较大。但植株抗冻耐寒性差，越冬期叶尖受冻失水发黄，生育期长，比小偃22晚熟1-2天，适宜在高水肥田块种植，建议适时早播。

(3)Z1 and Z3 that seemed to be safe in short term might suffer from pollution after the long-term transportation of oil particles.Oil spills in Fairway 1,which had strong pollution effects in short term,would have weak pollution effects in long term.

红色文化是在革命战争年代，由中国共产党人、先进分子和人民群众共同创造并极具中国特色的先进文化，蕴含着丰富的革命精神和厚重的历史文化内涵。党和人民在长期的斗争和实践中形成的红色文化，凝炼出了革命战争年代的延安精神、井冈山精神、西柏坡精神和社会主义年代的雷锋精神、大庆精神等先进精神，这些都是红色文化的精髓，激励着人们矢志不渝、开拓进取。通过向革命先烈和先进人物等的学习，能够提升大学生思想觉悟，践行社会主义价值观，树立正确的世界观、人生观和价值观。

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program) [Grant No.2015CB453301].The authors also express appreciation to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and the associate editor during the review process of the manuscript.

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