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RENMINBI CONTROVERSIESMorris GoldsteinNo topic in international monetary economics has probably been more debated over the past three years than what should be done about China’s currency regime and about the exchange rate for the renminbi (RMB) In this article, I take up three questions that are at the center of the current debate, namely:① Is the RMB undervalued and, if so, by how much?② Would an RMB appreciation of 20–25 percent be particularly harmful for China’s economic growth and development, as well as for its domestic financial stability? ③ Was the July 21, 2005, currency reform a large or tiny step forward？⑴Is the RMB Undervalued?Among the many approaches available for estimating equilibrium exchange rates, I prefer two: the “underlying balance” approach and the “global payments” In both cases, I am going to assume that no wholesale change occurs in China’s capital-account regime over say, the next three ⑵ Under the underlying balance approach, one asks what level of the real effective exchange rate—that is, the trade-weighted average of nominal exchange rates adjusted for inflation differentials between the home country and its trading partners—would produce equilibrium in the home country’s balance of payments, where equilibrium means an “underlying” current account position that is approximately equal (and opposite in sign) to “normal” net capital Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—as a rough estimate of its normal net capital ⑶ China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by speculative capital inflows, induced primarily by an expected appreciation of the RMBIf normal net capital flows are in surplus by 5 percent of GDP, equilibrium then calls for an underlying current account deficit equal to 5 percent of GDP The “underlying current account” can be defined as the actual current account balance adjusted for two factors: cyclical movements in the economy that make the demand for imports unusually high or low, and the lagged trade effects of earlier exchange rate changes that are not yet visible in the published China’s actual, overall current account surpluses in 2003 and 2004 were 3 and 2 percent of GDP, The underlying current account surplus was undoubtedly higher than the actual ones in those two years because the overheated state of the Chinese economy was pushing the demand for imports way up and because the real, trade-weighted value of the RMB depreciated during that period, suggesting positive trade-balance effects in the pipeline (see Goldstein 2004) Without pretending to undue precision, the underlying current account surplus in 2003–2004 was probably in the neighborhood of 5–5 percent of GDP China’s actual global current account surplus in 2005 was much larger Based on official figures just recently released, the actual current account surplus last year was 2 percent of GDP The underlying surplus would be somewhat lower because domestic demand growth slowed in China last year—reducing the growth of imports— and because the RMB appreciated in real, trade-weighted terms in ⑷ Nevertheless, the underlying current account surplus in 2005 was likely on the order of 5–6 percent of GDP The foregoing implies that China’s current account balance needs to deteriorate by a whopping 5–5 percent of GDP to restore equilibrium to its overall balance of If one does some simulations with a small trade model to calculate what size real appreciation of the RMB would generate such a large negative swing in China’s current account—using a range of plausible price elasticities, giving due consideration to how the high import content of China’s exports affects its export prices, and making alternative assumptions about the second-round feedback effects of income changes on the demand for imports—the answers tend to congregate in the 20–35 percent ⑸ Note again that this estimate of undervaluation of the MB is not dependent either on the large speculative capital inflows of recent years or on China’s large and rising bilateral trade surplus with the United SA second complementary approach, the global payments approach, asks what role RMB adjustment should play in the correction of large existing payments imbalances around the world—not just in C Here, the elephant in the room is the large US current account deficit—running at about 5 percent of GDP in 2005 and threatening to go higher over the medium term (see Cline 2005) An analysis of US external debt dynamics suggests that a deficit only about half that size is likely to be As argued by Mussa (2005) and others, one key element in any effective strategy to correct the US external imbalance, while simultaneously sustaining healthy global economic growth, is a further depreciation in the real trade-weighted dollar from its current level—on the order of 15–25 ⑹ Emerging Asia plus Japan account for about a 40 percent weight in the trade-weighted dollar Whereas the euro, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar, among other market-determined exchange rates, have shown strong (real effective) appreciations during the first wave of dollar depreciation (since February 2002), the Asian currencies—with the notable exceptions of the Korean won and Indonesian rupiah—have either appreciated only slightly (, Thai baht and the Indian rupee) or have actually ⑺In some cases (the Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and the Taiwanese dollar), the depreciation has been large despite sizable current account If the Asian currencies do not lead the way in the needed second wave of dollar depreciation, either the resulting overall depreciation of the dollar will be too small, or the burden of appreciation will fall heavily on economies where a further large appreciation would not be warranted by their economic circumstances (see Goldstein 2005)⑻ Under the global payments approach, China is a prime candidate for significant real currency appreciation: it has experienced massive reserve accumulation equal to 10 percent of GDP over each of the past three years; its real, trade-weighted exchange rate has depreciated over this period; and it has now recorded 10 successive quarters of 9 percent plus economic Moreover, an appreciation of the RMB would likely induce some appreciation in some other Asian To sum up, the message I take away from these approaches to assessing the equilibrium value of the RMB is that it remains significantly undervalued on a real, trade-weighted basis— on the order of 20– 35 ⑼A wholesale liberalization of controls on capital outflows could wipe out most of this undervaluation, but the fragile state of China’s banking system makes this policy neither desirable nor likely for the next several True, there are other approaches to valuing the RMB (, purchasing-power-parity calculations, structural models of the RMB, and VAR models), and there are other ad hoc adjustments one could make to obtain estimates of underlying current accounts and normal capital None of those approaches, however, yields results persuasive enough and different enough to overturn the large undervaluation ⑽Would an RMB Revaluation Be Bad for China’s Growth and Financial Stability?Many have argued that even if the RMB is undervalued, it would be most unwise to undertake a large revaluation since this could be catastrophic for China’s growth and economic development, as well as its social and financial In this context, some opponents of RMB revaluation emphasize the large-scale and continuing migration out of agriculture, the sizable employment losses in state-owned industries, and the large annual flow of graduates looking for Taken together, these labor force trends are said to create irresistible social pressures for rapid economic growth that can only be accommodated with the high export growth emanating from a highly undervalued exchange Still others opposed to revaluation assert that the rigid link of the RMB to the dollar—along with its undervaluation —has served as an essential pillar of China’s domestic financial stability and as a way of encouraging large inflows of foreign direct investment that can compensate for the weaknesses of China’s domestic banking I find these arguments against a significant RMB revaluation Getting the arguments right about the benefits and costs of an RMB revaluation is important because China cannot be expected to undertake an exchange rate policy that is perceived to be counter to its self- Let me offer three First, it is an exaggeration both to equate any significant real appreciation of the RMB with very slow growth and to regard exports as the main driver of China’s Between 1994 and early 2002 the real, trade-weighted exchange rate of the RMB appreciated by almost 30 percent (see Figure 1), yet the Chinese economy grew at an average annual rate of 9 percent and growth never dipped below 7 percent growth in any single year (see Figure 2) True, this large real appreciation of the RMB did not come all at once, but there were individual years in which the appreciation was 8 percent or more (13 percent in 1997 and 8 percent in 2000)⑾Also, the record over this eight-year period demonstrates that the Chinese economy is capable of growing at a robust pace when the real exchange rate is following strong trend The export-to-GDP ratio in China is now approaching 35 But as Anderson (2005a) has recently argued, this does not mean that the Chinese economy is “ export ” Adjusting for the relatively low domestic content of exports makes China’s “ true” export exposure lower than suggested by the headline export-to-GDP Anderson (2005a) goes on to argue that one salient characteristic of an export-led economy is that fluctuations in trade growth should be similar to those in broader GDP growth— whereas an economy that relies more on domestic demand for growth would display fluctuations in GDP growth that were considerably smaller than those for trade On this count, Anderson (2005a) finds that while the standard deviation of trade growth has been very similar to the standard deviation of GDP growth for a group of seven Asian economies, the standard deviation of GDP growth has been only about a third as high as that for trade growth in C In fact, the relationship between GDP growth and trade growth in China looks much closer to that in the United States than it does to China’s Asian

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第一章对外贸易与经济增长第一节对外贸易与国际贸易概述第二节对外贸易对国民经济增长的贡献第三节对外贸易与经济增长相互关系的实证分析第四节新中国成立以来对外贸易的发展与经济增长本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第二章对外贸易理论依据（上）第一节有中国特色的对外贸易理论发展第二节我国对外贸易与比较利益学说第三节我国对外贸易与国际价值论本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第三章对外贸易理论依据（中）第一节对外贸易与要素禀赋理论第二节 “里昂惕夫之谜”及其解释第三节对外贸易与新贸易理论第四节要素禀赋理论与我国对外贸易本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第四章对外贸易理论依据（下）第一节对外贸易与贸易保护理论第二节对外贸易与经济一体化理论第三节对外贸易与战略贸易政策理论第四节管理贸易政策理论与我国对外贸易本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第五章加入WTO与对外贸易体制改革第一节对外贸易的组织、制度与比较优势第二节我国对外贸易体制基础与改造第三节参加世界贸易组织（WTO）与我国外贸体制改革第四节 “入世”对“两岸四地”经贸合作的影响第五节加入WTO/GATT与应对冲击的国际经验借鉴本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第六章对外贸易产业经营第一节对外贸易经营方式及其比较第二节对外贸易代理制第三节对外贸易经营活动第四节对外贸易价格第五节对外贸易经济效益本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第七章对外贸易资本经营第一节外贸企业的股份制改造第二节外贸企业与资本市场第三节外贸企业的一般融资业务第四节外贸企业资本经营中的风险防范本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第八章对外贸易与利用外资第一节外商投资的外贸效益评价对象、依据与内容第二节外商投资的外贸效益评价方法与指标第三节提高外商投资外贸效益的途径本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第九章对外服务贸易第一节服务贸易的发展现状第二节国际服务贸易的主要规则第三节我国的服务贸易开放第四节我国服务贸易的发展策略本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第十章对外贸易与知识产权保护第一节知识产权贸易的发展状况第二节国际知识产权保护与贸易竞争力第三节国际知识产权贸易壁垒及其影响第四节知识产权保护与我国对外贸易本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第十一章对外贸易摩擦第一节对外贸易摩擦的分类第二节对外贸易摩擦的成因第三节对外贸易摩擦的效应第四节对外贸易摩擦的应对策略本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第十二章对外贸易与环境保护第一节绿色（生态）贸易与环境标准第二节环境保护与贸易竞争力第三节对外贸易中的“绿色壁垒”第四节我国对外贸易中的环境保护本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第十三章对外贸易宏观调控第一节我国对外贸易的宏观调控体系第二节对外贸易法规第三节关税制度与财政调控第四节外汇管理与人民币汇率机制第五节外贸行业促进组织本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献第十四章对外贸易发展战略第一节战略目标、依据、体制和政策第二节对外贸易战略基本原则第三节对外贸易总体战略第四节对外贸易基础战略本章小结主要概念与术语思考讨论题参考文献专业术语中英文对照教学课件索取单

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[1]金雯飞,刁化功浅谈中国旅游服务贸易的发展[J] 现代经济探讨,2001,(12) [2]梁峰中国旅游服务贸易发展的时空演变特征分析[J] 北方经济,2010,(3) [3]李宝杨浅析GATS对中国旅游服务贸易发展的影响[J] 黑龙江对外经贸,2004,(4) [4]蒋庚华,张曙霄中国旅游服务贸易内部区域结构失衡问题分析[J] 东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版),2011,(1) [5]李仲广中国旅游服务贸易:潜力惊人[J] 中国经贸,2011,(2) [6]李小牧中国旅游服务贸易发展:1985—2004年的国际收支分析[J] 国际贸易,2006,(10) [7]林贤瑛中国旅游服务贸易的现状及法律对策[J] 江西财经大学学报,2004,(4) [8]齐述丽,俞会新我国旅游服务贸易竞争力的国际比较[J] 对外经贸实务,2009,(2) [9]梁峰中国旅游服务贸易发展研究[D] 华东师范大学: 华东师范大学, [10]王志伟中美旅游服务贸易竞争力比较及启示[J] 对外经贸实务,2009,(11) [11]王瑞 GATS对中国旅游服务贸易影响的法律研究[D] 厦门大学: 厦门大学, [12]刘伟中国旅游服务贸易产业竞争力研究[D] 内蒙古农业大学: 内蒙古农业大学, [13]曾宪梅,江河 GATS框架下中国旅游业的发展策略[J] 教育理论与实践,2010,(9) [14]马骊中国旅游服务贸易入世承诺研究[D] 西南政法大学: 西南政法大学, [15]余彬中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力研究[D] 武汉理工大学: 武汉理工大学, [16]孙夏提升中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力研究[D] 河海大学: 河海大学, [17]姜义茂,刘慧芳,李俊中国旅游服务出口国际竞争力探析[J] 中国经贸,2006,(11) [18]王岩浅析中国旅游服务贸易的发展[D] 吉林大学: 吉林大学, [19]赵冬东中国旅游服务贸易竞争力研究[D] 哈尔滨工业大学: 哈尔滨工业大学, [20]林沛泉中国旅游服务贸易竞争力分析[D] 对外经济贸易大学: 对外经济贸易大学, [21]阮德寿越中旅游服务贸易研究[D] 广西师范大学: 广西师范大学, [22]韩燕中国旅游服务贸易竞争优势分析[D] 兰州商学院: 兰州商学院, [23]谭鹏成关于中国旅游服务贸易出口流量变化的研究[D] 江南大学: 江南大学, [24]陈科贸易自由化下的中国旅游服务贸易竞争力分析[D] 浙江工业大学: 浙江工业大学, [25]肖小文论CAFTA《服务贸易协议》与中国旅游服务贸易的发展[J] 法制与经济(下旬刊),2008,(11) [26]蒋庚华,张曙霄中国旅游服务贸易内部区域结构失衡问题分析[A] 李小牧,钱建初中国商务出版社(China Commerce and Trade Press)[C]: 中国商务出版社(China Commerce and Trade Press),2010: [27]谭鹏成入境旅游:基于福利恶化型增长视角的分析[J] 黑龙江对外经贸,2008,(12) [28]陈昊中国旅游服务贸易与服务贸易总协定[J] 沈阳大学学报,1997,(4) [29]何伟,江旸中国旅游服务贸易发展策略分析[J] 黄石理工学院学报(人文社会科学版),2007,(1) [30]周经,吕计跃中国旅游服务贸易竞争力影响因素的实证分析[J] 国际贸易问题,2008,(4) [31]陈科中国旅游服务贸易自由化与竞争力研究[J] 商场现代化,2009,(12) [32]李璐我国旅游服务贸易竞争力研究[D] 湖南大学: 湖南大学, [33]蒋庚华,张曙霄中国旅游服务贸易地区差距与地区经济差距的关系[J] 经济问题,2011,(3) [34]汪志伟 GATS框架下中国国际旅游服务贸易的立法完善[J] 黄山学院学报,2006,(6) [35]孙夏提升中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力研究[J] 长春师范学院学报(自然科学版),2009,(8) [36]冯姝姝基于计量经济学模型的中国旅游服务贸易研究[J] 生态经济,2007,(10) [37]李小牧,宋玮玮中国旅游服务贸易收支影响因素的实证分析[J] 生产力研究,2008,(23) [38]周经娟,万红光中国旅游服务贸易竞争力的影响因素分析[J] 重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2007,(5) [39]张汉林,樊莹景美更需服务好——服务贸易总协定与中国旅游服务贸易发展[J] 国际贸易,1997,(2) [40]梁峰中国旅游服务贸易发展的空间集聚特征分析[J] 经济论坛,2010,(3) [41]周广威我国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的研究[D] 浙江大学: 浙江大学, [42]史玉江我国旅游服务贸易存在的问题及对策研究[D] 河北大学: 河北大学, [43]林贤瑛 WTO《服务贸易总协定》对我国国际旅游服务贸易的影响及法律对策[D] 南昌大学: 南昌大学, [44]文斐婧,王柏彬,逄忠臣我国入境旅游服务贸易研究[J] 安徽农业科学,2011,(6) [45]苏科五,李明星中国与东盟旅游服务贸易国际竞争力比较——基于面板数据的分析：1990～2006[J] 河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,(6) [46]冯建栋中国旅游服务贸易现状及其前景与对策分析[J] 中国商贸,2011,(9) [47]李桂香中国旅游服务贸易的经济增长效应——基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J] 宜春学院学报,2011,(3) [48]曾兴中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的影响因素分析[J] 才智,2009,(23) [49]王永玲,希冷洛中国旅游服务贸易的竞争力浅析[J] 云南财经大学学报(社会科学版),2008,(4) [50]徐军中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的现状及其对策[J] 芜湖职业技术学院学报,2008,(1)

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