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RENMINBI CONTROVERSIESMorris GoldsteinNo topic in international monetary economics has probably been more debated over the past three years than what should be done about China’s currency regime and about the exchange rate for the renminbi (RMB) In this article, I take up three questions that are at the center of the current debate, namely:① Is the RMB undervalued and, if so, by how much?② Would an RMB appreciation of 20–25 percent be particularly harmful for China’s economic growth and development, as well as for its domestic financial stability? ③ Was the July 21, 2005, currency reform a large or tiny step forward？⑴Is the RMB Undervalued?Among the many approaches available for estimating equilibrium exchange rates, I prefer two: the “underlying balance” approach and the “global payments” In both cases, I am going to assume that no wholesale change occurs in China’s capital-account regime over say, the next three ⑵ Under the underlying balance approach, one asks what level of the real effective exchange rate—that is, the trade-weighted average of nominal exchange rates adjusted for inflation differentials between the home country and its trading partners—would produce equilibrium in the home country’s balance of payments, where equilibrium means an “underlying” current account position that is approximately equal (and opposite in sign) to “normal” net capital Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—as a rough estimate of its normal net capital ⑶ China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by speculative capital inflows, induced primarily by an expected appreciation of the RMBIf normal net capital flows are in surplus by 5 percent of GDP, equilibrium then calls for an underlying current account deficit equal to 5 percent of GDP The “underlying current account” can be defined as the actual current account balance adjusted for two factors: cyclical movements in the economy that make the demand for imports unusually high or low, and the lagged trade effects of earlier exchange rate changes that are not yet visible in the published China’s actual, overall current account surpluses in 2003 and 2004 were 3 and 2 percent of GDP, The underlying current account surplus was undoubtedly higher than the actual ones in those two years because the overheated state of the Chinese economy was pushing the demand for imports way up and because the real, trade-weighted value of the RMB depreciated during that period, suggesting positive trade-balance effects in the pipeline (see Goldstein 2004) Without pretending to undue precision, the underlying current account surplus in 2003–2004 was probably in the neighborhood of 5–5 percent of GDP China’s actual global current account surplus in 2005 was much larger Based on official figures just recently released, the actual current account surplus last year was 2 percent of GDP The underlying surplus would be somewhat lower because domestic demand growth slowed in China last year—reducing the growth of imports— and because the RMB appreciated in real, trade-weighted terms in ⑷ Nevertheless, the underlying current account surplus in 2005 was likely on the order of 5–6 percent of GDP The foregoing implies that China’s current account balance needs to deteriorate by a whopping 5–5 percent of GDP to restore equilibrium to its overall balance of If one does some simulations with a small trade model to calculate what size real appreciation of the RMB would generate such a large negative swing in China’s current account—using a range of plausible price elasticities, giving due consideration to how the high import content of China’s exports affects its export prices, and making alternative assumptions about the second-round feedback effects of income changes on the demand for imports—the answers tend to congregate in the 20–35 percent ⑸ Note again that this estimate of undervaluation of the MB is not dependent either on the large speculative capital inflows of recent years or on China’s large and rising bilateral trade surplus with the United SA second complementary approach, the global payments approach, asks what role RMB adjustment should play in the correction of large existing payments imbalances around the world—not just in C Here, the elephant in the room is the large US current account deficit—running at about 5 percent of GDP in 2005 and threatening to go higher over the medium term (see Cline 2005) An analysis of US external debt dynamics suggests that a deficit only about half that size is likely to be As argued by Mussa (2005) and others, one key element in any effective strategy to correct the US external imbalance, while simultaneously sustaining healthy global economic growth, is a further depreciation in the real trade-weighted dollar from its current level—on the order of 15–25 ⑹ Emerging Asia plus Japan account for about a 40 percent weight in the trade-weighted dollar Whereas the euro, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar, among other market-determined exchange rates, have shown strong (real effective) appreciations during the first wave of dollar depreciation (since February 2002), the Asian currencies—with the notable exceptions of the Korean won and Indonesian rupiah—have either appreciated only slightly (, Thai baht and the Indian rupee) or have actually ⑺In some cases (the Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and the Taiwanese dollar), the depreciation has been large despite sizable current account If the Asian currencies do not lead the way in the needed second wave of dollar depreciation, either the resulting overall depreciation of the dollar will be too small, or the burden of appreciation will fall heavily on economies where a further large appreciation would not be warranted by their economic circumstances (see Goldstein 2005)⑻ Under the global payments approach, China is a prime candidate for significant real currency appreciation: it has experienced massive reserve accumulation equal to 10 percent of GDP over each of the past three years; its real, trade-weighted exchange rate has depreciated over this period; and it has now recorded 10 successive quarters of 9 percent plus economic Moreover, an appreciation of the RMB would likely induce some appreciation in some other Asian To sum up, the message I take away from these approaches to assessing the equilibrium value of the RMB is that it remains significantly undervalued on a real, trade-weighted basis— on the order of 20– 35 ⑼A wholesale liberalization of controls on capital outflows could wipe out most of this undervaluation, but the fragile state of China’s banking system makes this policy neither desirable nor likely for the next several True, there are other approaches to valuing the RMB (, purchasing-power-parity calculations, structural models of the RMB, and VAR models), and there are other ad hoc adjustments one could make to obtain estimates of underlying current accounts and normal capital None of those approaches, however, yields results persuasive enough and different enough to overturn the large undervaluation ⑽Would an RMB Revaluation Be Bad for China’s Growth and Financial Stability?Many have argued that even if the RMB is undervalued, it would be most unwise to undertake a large revaluation since this could be catastrophic for China’s growth and economic development, as well as its social and financial In this context, some opponents of RMB revaluation emphasize the large-scale and continuing migration out of agriculture, the sizable employment losses in state-owned industries, and the large annual flow of graduates looking for Taken together, these labor force trends are said to create irresistible social pressures for rapid economic growth that can only be accommodated with the high export growth emanating from a highly undervalued exchange Still others opposed to revaluation assert that the rigid link of the RMB to the dollar—along with its undervaluation —has served as an essential pillar of China’s domestic financial stability and as a way of encouraging large inflows of foreign direct investment that can compensate for the weaknesses of China’s domestic banking I find these arguments against a significant RMB revaluation Getting the arguments right about the benefits and costs of an RMB revaluation is important because China cannot be expected to undertake an exchange rate policy that is perceived to be counter to its self- Let me offer three First, it is an exaggeration both to equate any significant real appreciation of the RMB with very slow growth and to regard exports as the main driver of China’s Between 1994 and early 2002 the real, trade-weighted exchange rate of the RMB appreciated by almost 30 percent (see Figure 1), yet the Chinese economy grew at an average annual rate of 9 percent and growth never dipped below 7 percent growth in any single year (see Figure 2) True, this large real appreciation of the RMB did not come all at once, but there were individual years in which the appreciation was 8 percent or more (13 percent in 1997 and 8 percent in 2000)⑾Also, the record over this eight-year period demonstrates that the Chinese economy is capable of growing at a robust pace when the real exchange rate is following strong trend The export-to-GDP ratio in China is now approaching 35 But as Anderson (2005a) has recently argued, this does not mean that the Chinese economy is “ export ” Adjusting for the relatively low domestic content of exports makes China’s “ true” export exposure lower than suggested by the headline export-to-GDP Anderson (2005a) goes on to argue that one salient characteristic of an export-led economy is that fluctuations in trade growth should be similar to those in broader GDP growth— whereas an economy that relies more on domestic demand for growth would display fluctuations in GDP growth that were considerably smaller than those for trade On this count, Anderson (2005a) finds that while the standard deviation of trade growth has been very similar to the standard deviation of GDP growth for a group of seven Asian economies, the standard deviation of GDP growth has been only about a third as high as that for trade growth in C In fact, the relationship between GDP growth and trade growth in China looks much closer to that in the United States than it does to China’s Asian

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抠脚大象

本人浅谈对国际贸易专业的一点个人看法．通常来说，国际贸易专业分为国际贸易理论和国际贸易实务两个部分．前者和国际金融，国际投资构成了国际经济学的三个分支．关于这个专业的发展，关键看你自己的定位。如果将来想继续深造，那么重点应该放在理论尤其是前沿理论的掌握上。多看文献。国际贸易理论虽然与姐妹学科国际金融，国际投资相比较冷，但其体系一样博大精深，分支众多．比如国际贸易和增长，这个分支国内的牛人有湖南大学的赖明勇，许和连，包群，再比如国际贸易中的政治经济学，南开大学盛斌的博士论文＜中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析＞曾经获奖．再比如国际贸易的政策，战略这个分支．其中战略性贸易政策理论（Brander-Spencer模型）一直是国际前沿文献的热门话题，研究的内容也很多．贸易地理学以及外包，代工则是国际贸易理论新出现的两个分支，研究的发展空间更大．如果将来想做进出口业务，那么应该把精力放到掌握结算，进出口等实务操作上。不能光看教科书上那些。毕竟进出口业务是一个有时效性的工作。教科书总是滞后的．何况好多教科书也都是抄来抄去的．好多教国际贸易实务和结算的老师自己都没有具体操作过，除了照本宣科外，能教你什么？还应该多浏览网站，专业杂志，掌握最新的动态和新的业务名词．或者干脆去进出口公司，货运代理公司实习，实际操作．效果好得多．比如外贸单证，多做，制作几份就熟练了．如果没有条件去公司实习，现在也有一些模拟进出口和结算实务环境的软件．我原来教书的学校就购买了这样的软件，建立了一个实验室供学生操作．效果不错．总之感觉无论是搞研究还是实务不能局限于书本，不能光靠老师．如果要做业务，那么有些证书还是很关键的．比如报关，报检证，物流师，货运代理的资格证，单证员资格证等．另外英语能力很重要．我在浙江工作过，在长三角，六级证书是起码的要求．总体看在沿海发达地区，国际贸易专业的学生还是好找工作的．当然在内地，外向经济不发达，就业环境不是很好．当然有一点可以肯定，在外贸公司，收入最高的不是那些坐办公室，只会制作单证的人，而是在具体做业务，掌握大量客户的业务员．国际贸易工作也免不了人与人的交往，你的性格，交际能力，交际面都很重要．只会制作单证（说实话，一个大专生或者职高生只要外语说的过去在一定时间内都能学会，现在好多英语专业的学生也转来做外贸了）只能保证你有一份工作．不能保证你有很好的收入．一点浅识，请大家多多批评指正！

161 评论 9小时前发布

匪号叶小二

中国知网，什么文献都有。你如果不下载的话，只在线浏览的话，注册个账号在网站浏览就行了，如果你想下载那就需要充值了，不过建议去淘宝买个账号，5元120天。网页上的论文文献都是PDF和caj格式的。

182 评论 11小时前发布

blackiron.sh

浅探当代国际贸易新理论对我国对外贸易战略的启示在我国对外贸易规模不断扩大的今天，要想提高我国的国际竞争力，必须重视国际上20世纪70年代以后兴起的国际贸易新理论，实施创新的对外贸易战略，打造具有国际竞争优势的产业。本文通过研究当代国际贸易理论的新发展对我国外贸发展的启示，分析探讨了我国应该如何制定相应的政策，采取相应的对策来促进我国对外贸易的发展。一、当代国际贸易理论的新进展二战后随着科学技术的进步和生产力的不断发展，国际贸易的规模、商品结构和地区分布也发生了很大变化。经济学家在国际贸易理论研究中不断探索，20世纪70年代以来先后出现的影响较大的国际贸易新理论有以下几种：1、战略性贸易政策理论战略性贸易政策理论产生于2O世纪7O年代以来“新贸易保护主义”盛行的背景之下，由美国经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼等人于2O世纪8O年代中期提出，主要内容包括两方面：（1）以内部规模经济为基础的利润转移理论；（2）以外部规模经济为基础的外部经济理论。2、产业内贸易理论20世纪70年代格鲁贝尔和劳埃德等人开创了产业内贸易理论研究，到20世纪80年代初美国经济学家克鲁格曼进一步推动了这一理论的发展。该理论不同于侧重论述产业间贸易的传统贸易理论，代写毕业论文它侧重研究贸易双方在同一产业中既出口又进口同类异质产品的产业内贸易。在不完全竞争产业中，规模经济和产品差异是产业内贸易形成的决定因素。3、产品生命周期理论产品生命周期理论由美国销售学家弗农于1966年首先提出，经威尔斯、赫希哲等人不断完善。产品生命周期理论认为，由于技术创新和扩散，制成品和生物一样具有生命周期。产品生命周期包括五个阶段：(1)新生期；(2)成长期；(3)成熟期；(4)销售下降期；(5)让与期。4、国家竞争优势理论20世纪80年代以来，美国哈佛大学的迈克尔·波特提出并完善了国家竞争优势理论。国家竞争优势理论与传统比较优势理论和要素禀赋理论不同之处在于，该理论认为一个国家之所以能够兴旺发达，其根本原因在于该国的国际竞争优势，这种竞争优势源于一个相互增强的系统，在这个系统中，有四个关键因素影响一国在国际市场上建立和保持竞争优势的能力，这四个因素是：(1)生产要素；(2)国内需求；(3)相关产业；(4)企业战略、组织和竞争度。二、当代国际贸易新理论对我国对外贸易战略的启示1、积极转化国家的竞争优势比较优势是由一国资源禀赋和交易条件所决定的静态优势，是获取竞争优势的条件。竞争优势则是一种将潜在优势转化为现实优势的综合能力的作用结果。比较优势作为一种潜在优势，只有最终转化为竞争优势，才能形成真正的出口竞争力。根据生产要素禀赋，我国一直以来具有劳动力资源的比较优势，但是，在当今国际市场上劳动密集型产品的比较优势并不一定具有国际竞争优势。要确立把比较优势转换为竞争优势的外贸战略。2、高新技术产业发展至关重要由国际产品生命周期理论可以推知：创新国是国际贸易利益的最大获益者。这是因为：在产品的新生期和成长期，创新国以其技术优势垄断了国内和国际市场，因而可以获得大量超额垄断利润；在产品的成熟期进入所谓的“大规模生产”阶段，创新国可以获得巨额规模经济效益；在产品的销售下降期和让与期，创新国在国外投资建厂，输出其知识产权和品牌，延长其产品的生命周期，在国际市场上继续赚取利润。3、发展高层次产业内贸易是提高对外贸易竞争力的重要手段随着国际经济贸易的发展，产业内贸易在给各贸易国带来贸易利益的同时，Probe into New Theory of International Trade Implications of China Foreign Trade Strategy Growing scale of foreign trade in China Today, in order to enhance China's international competitiveness, must pay attention to the international community 70 years after the 20th century Xingqi new theory of international trade, the implementation of the Duiwaimaoyi innovation strategy, create an international competitive advantage in the This paper studies the contemporary new development of international trade theory enlightenment for the development of China's Foreign Trade, analysis of how China should formulate corresponding policies and take corresponding measures to promote the development of China's foreign First, the contemporary theory of international trade, new progress After World War II with the scientific and technological progress and productivity of the continuous development of international trade size, structure and regional distribution of goods, great changes have taken Theory of international trade economist and continuously explore the 20th century, has emerged since the 70's influential new theory of international trade, the following: 1, Strategic Trade Policy Strategic trade policy arise from 7O 2O century since the "new trade protectionism," the prevalence of background, the US economist Paul Krugman, who in the mid 8O 2O century, proposed, mainly including two aspects : (1) internal economies of scale-based theory of profit transfer; (2) based on external economies of scale external economic 2, intra-industry trade theory 20th century 70s Grubel and Lloyd, who created the industry trade theory, to the early 20th century US economist Paul Krugman of 80 to further promote the development of this The theory is different from the focus on inter-industry trade paper the traditional trade theory, on behalf of my thesis research is focused on trade, both sides in the same industry, the export of products they import the same heterogeneous industry Not perfectly competitive industries, economies of scale and product differentiation is the formation of intra-industry trade 3, the product life cycle theory Product life cycle theory Sales Vernon by the United States first proposed in 1966 by Prince, He Xizhe and others Product life cycle theory, as technological innovation and diffusion, and biological products, like life- Product life cycle consists of five stages: (1) Neonatal; (2) growth stage; (3) maturity; (4) decline of sales; (5) for and 4, Competitive Advantage of Nations Since the 80s of the 20th century, Harvard's Michael Porter and improve the Competitive Advantage of N Competitive Advantage of Nations and the traditional theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory of difference is, the theory that a country has been able to flourish, and the fundamental reason is the country's international competitive advantage, this competitive advantage derived from a mutually reinforcing system, in this system, there are four key factors that affect a country in the international market, establish and maintain a competitive edge in the ability of these four factors are: (1) factors of production; (2) domestic demand; (3) related industries ; (4) business strategy, organizational and competitive Second, the contemporary theory of international trade on China's foreign trade strategy for new inspiration 1, the positive transformation of the national competitive advantage Comparative advantage in natural resources by a country and trading conditions determine the static strengths are the conditions for competitive Competitive advantage is a way to advantage the potential into real ability to effect the comprehensive Comparative advantage as a potential advantage, only the final into a competitive advantage, to form a real export According to the production factor endowment, along with China's comparative advantage in labor resources, but in today's international market, the comparative advantage of labor-intensive products do not necessarily have an international competitive To establish the comparative advantages into competitive advantages in foreign trade 2, high-tech industries vital to the development By the international product life cycle theory can be deduced: Innovation is the international trade interests of the country's biggest This is because: the product of Neonatal and growth, innovation and technical superiority of its state monopoly of domestic and international markets, and thus get a lot of excess monopoly profits; in product maturity into the so-called "mass production" stage, innovation States can get huge economies of scale; in product sales were down period and give and of innovation invest and build factories in foreign countries, the output of its intellectual property and brand to extend its product life Zhou Qi, in the international market continue to make a 3, the development of high-level intra-industry trade is to improve the competitiveness of an important means of foreign trade With the international economic and trade development, intra-industry trade in all trading nations to bring trade interests, 翻译为：

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