研究国际贸易的发展趋势，是我国制定和完善出口发展战略的重要前提。一、国际贸易的现状与前瞻进入90年代后，由于世界格局发生了巨大变化，西方国家受周期性和结构性因素的影响而先后陷入衰退，再加上美元汇率的变化、国际债务、战争等因素的严重制约，国际贸易的增长速度连年下降，而且波动较大，国际贸易增长率从1989年的7％下降到1990年的5％，1991年又下降到3％，1992年上升到4．5％，1993年又降至2．5％，1994年回升到5％，1995年可望增长到7％左右，1996年后，增长速度还要加快。但不同国家和不同地区之间的发展是很不平衡的。总的看，整个90年代国际贸易将处于一个新的增长期，其发展速度可达5％左右，不仅超过世界经济增长速度还将明显高于80年代（4％）的发展水平。国际商品市场对机电产品、运输设备、计算机、有色金属、石油、石化产品等的需求大幅度增长，价格上扬，其中制成品贸易将进一步扩大。初级产品贸易亦有明显好转，其绝对贸易额将不断增长，但在国际贸易中所占的比重却呈下降的趋势，下降幅度将小于80年代同类产品的水平，这种态势在今后几年内还将继续发展。90年代，国际贸易的基本走势是初期缓慢增长，中后期增速加快，其推动力主要来自西方国家的宏观调控措施。但是与产业结构变动直接关联的技术大周期正处在上升阶段，还没有重大突破，贸易保护主义的新发展以及发展中国家沉重的债务负担等因素的制约，国际贸易出现大幅度增长的可能性不大。二、影响国际贸易发展的几个主要因素（一）世界经济继续保持增长的势头世界经济已摆脱连续4年的增长缓慢和不景气状态，并开始步入新一轮的经济上升周期，世界经济增长率在1991年下降到—0．4％的基础上，1992年提高到0．8％，1993年为1．7％，1994年上升到3．1％，预计1995年可达3．5％，90年代下半期大体可保持3％的增长率，略高于80年代2．9％的水平。西方国家经济普遍复苏和发展，是世界经济好转的重要原因。美国经济在90年代下半期的增长率可能维持在3％左右。西欧经济增长率也从1993年0．4％的负增长，提高到1994年的2．6％，1995年可达2．9％，尔后几年，经济形势将进一步好转，并步入常规增长，年平均增长率将高于80年代。美国、西欧经济情况的进一步好转，有助于抑制日元升值的势头，并在一定程度上推动日本的出口，为日本摆脱经济衰退提供一个转机，使经济出现一些复苏的迹象。90年代下半期，日本经济增长率大体维持在3—3．5％，尽管高过美国和西欧，但仍低于80年代的水平。国际贸易的发展及趋势 发布时间： 2003-7-21 作者：安和芬 研究国际贸易的发展趋势，是我国制定和完善出口发展战略的重要前提。一、国际贸易的现状与前瞻进入90年代后，由于世界格局发生了巨大变化，西方国家受周期性和结构性因素的影响而先后陷入衰退，再加上美元汇率的变化、国际债务、战争等因素的严重制约，国际贸易的增长速度连年下降，而且波动较大，国际贸易增长率从1989年的7％下降到1990年的5％，1991年又下降到3％，1992年上升到4．5％，1993年又降至2．5％，1994年回升到5％，1995年可望增长到7％左右，1996年后，增长速度还要加快。但不同国家和不同地区之间的发展是很不平衡的。总的看，整个90年代国际贸易将处于一个新的增长期，其发展速度可达5％左右，不仅超过世界经济增长速度还将明显高于80年代（4％）的发展水平。国际商品市场对机电产品、运输设备、计算机、有色金属、石油、石化产品等的需求大幅度增长，价格上扬，其中制成品贸易将进一步扩大。初级产品贸易亦有明显好转，其绝对贸易额将不断增长，但在国际贸易中所占的比重却呈下降的趋势，下降幅度将小于80年代同类产品的水平，这种态势在今后几年内还将继续发展。90年代，国际贸易的基本走势是初期缓慢增长，中后期增速加快，其推动力主要来自西方国家的宏观调控措施。但是与产业结构变动直接关联的技术大周期正处在上升阶段，还没有重大突破，贸易保护主义的新发展以及发展中国家沉重的债务负担等因素的制约，国际贸易出现大幅度增长的可能性不大。二、影响国际贸易发展的几个主要因素（一）世界经济继续保持增长的势头世界经济已摆脱连续4年的增长缓慢和不景气状态，并开始步入新一轮的经济上升周期，世界经济增长率在1991年下降到—0．4％的基础上，1992年提高到0．8％，1993年为1．7％，1994年上升到3．1％，预计1995年可达3．5％，90年代下半期大体可保持3％的增长率，略高于80年代2．9％的水平。西方国家经济普遍复苏和发展，是世界经济好转的重要原因。美国经济在90年代下半期的增长率可能维持在3％左右。西欧经济增长率也从1993年0．4％的负增长，提高到1994年的2．6％，1995年可达2．9％，尔后几年，经济形势将进一步好转，并步入常规增长，年平均增长率将高于80年代。美国、西欧经济情况的进一步好转，有助于抑制日元升值的势头，并在一定程度上推动日本的出口，为日本摆脱经济衰退提供一个转机，使经济出现一些复苏的迹象。90年代下半期，日本经济增长率大体维持在3—3．5％，尽管高过美国和西欧，但仍低于80年代的水平。在东盟经济部长第26届年会上，一致同意把建成东盟自由贸易区的时间，从原定15年缩短为10年，决定在2003年1月1日，把东盟内部工业品、农产品的关税降到0．5％。目前，亚太地区的“成长三角”，作为次区域经济合作的一种补充模式进展比较顺利。为了推动亚太经济合作的发展，1995年2月16日，亚太经合组织举行高级官员“特别”会议，讨论地区贸易和投资的远景，并为今年11月在大阪召开部长级会议和第三届领导人会议准备议事日程，同时起草在2020年以前实现亚太地区贸易和投资的自由化“行动计划”。参加会议的官员一致认为议事日程应由贸易和投资自由化，以及经济和技术合作两部分组成。会议同意成立一个私营企业协调组。（四）科学技术进步的加速90年代是以微电子、生物技术、信息技术和新材料等领域为中心的高新技术、继续加速发展、而且日趋走向实用化、产业化的时代，随着高新技术的推广应用，国际化分工的深化，产品质量性能的不断提高，产品种类、规格的不断变化，产品的生产同期将大为缩短。由于产品的不断升级换代，必将促使各国的产业结构和经济结构向更高层次发展，使国际间的相互依赖和渗透进一步加深，从而推动国际商品范围和贸易量的不断扩大。使商品生产的内容、形式以及组织等方面都将发生变革。国际贸易的发展也越来越多地和新技术联在一起，使国际商品生产和贸易的原材料密度和粗放程度大为减少，而技术、知识密集度却大大提高。由于社会消费需求向多样化发展，通过商品交换，促进行业内部贸易的发展。（五）跨国公司的蓬勃发展进入90年代后，跨国公司发展尤为迅速，并正在不断改变着世界商品生产和流通的格局。目前，全球跨国公司约有1．2万家，控制着世界出口贸易总额的2／3，跨国公司内部贸易已占国际贸易的40％。随着生产国际化的新发展，跨国公司将在更大程度上控制着国际贸易、国际投资和技术转让等经济活动。制成品贸易，特别是高技术贸易和资本货物贸易在跨国公司内占的比重也将越来越大，在发达国家的制成品贸易中，由于规模经济的作用，使同一行业内部的双向性国际商品流动发展很快，并成为贸易效益的主要来源，据1992年有关部门的调查，发达国家的产业内贸易约占国际贸易的60％，新加坡、韩国、印度尼西亚等国的产业内贸易约占国际贸易的45％。随着世界经济区域集团化的发展和新贸易保护主义的盛行，企业进入国外市场更为困难。为了绕过东道国的贸易壁垒，为了有利于降低研究、试制、生产成本，扩大市场，实现优势互补，从80年代起，一些大型跨国公司已开始走向无国界化，但是直到近几年，大企业间缔结国际战略联盟的工作才得到迅速发展。跨国公司联盟可以利用自身和他国的不同优势，通过生产要素的国际流动，在世界范围内实现资源的合理配置，共同获取最大的经济效益，推动国际贸易的发展。三、国际贸易结构发生重大变化（一）国际服务贸易蓬勃兴起进入80年代后，服务贸易正以高于商品贸易的速度增长，国际服务贸易额从1982年的4050亿美元增加到1987年的9600亿美元，1992年又增加到10200亿美元，10年间增长1．5倍，同期，世界商品贸易额只增长1倍。1993年，世界商品贸易额比上年减少2％，而国际服务贸易额却增长3％。在国际服务贸易构成中，运输和旅游服务贸易所占的比重相对下降，通讯、保险、广告、技术、租赁、管理等服务贸易所占的比重在不断提高，尤其是高技术产品中的附加值的不断增加，其商品也越来越趋向于服务密集型。发达国家的经济越来越“服务化”，在国际服务贸易中，发达国家约占3／4的份额。美国是世界最大的服务贸易出口国，在电信、数据处理、银行、保险等新兴服务项目中具有明显优势。世界许多国家出于自身的经济安全考虑，对服务贸易实行保护主义政策，普遍构筑了贸易壁垒，对美国服务贸易的扩大构成强大的威胁，因此，几年前，美国就向关贸总协定提出要求解决服务贸易的问题。乌拉圭回合经过多年的谈判，终于达成服务贸易多边框架协定，规定缔约方所承担的一般义务与纪律，包括最惠国待遇、透明度、国民待遇、发展中国家的逐步参与、市场准入、解决争议等条款。服务贸易多边框架的制定，是关贸总协定在推动国际贸易自由化发展问题上的一个重大突破，它将使缔约方对服务市场的保护与多边谈判，加强人员交往与信息流通，特别是知识产权、技术转让、数据处理、咨询、广告等服务行业的贸易逐步自由化，有利于加速国际贸易的发展。（二）环保产品风靡全球1992年，联合国“环境与发展会议”，大大增强了世界人民的环保意识，对人类健康无害的绿色食品、绿色冰箱、绿色空调、绿色电脑、绿色汽车等绿色产品的需求量明显上升，从而推动了电器、能源、建筑、石化等工业部门的变革，防治污染、节能、信息服务等将形成一个新兴的庞大产业。北美、西欧的环保技术已占据国际市场的60％，据西方7个工业国的调查，抵制非环保产品的人数约占总人数的79％，这表明绿色商品在国际市场上已占主导地位，而且市场前景非常广阔。为了解决与贸易有关的环境问题，1993年12月15日，在乌拉圭回合的贸易谈判委员会议上，通过一项“关于贸易与环境”的决议，决定起草一份贸易与环境的工作方案，并制定有关贸易与环境措施之间增强相互作用的规则，监督用于环境目的的贸易措施，以及与贸易有关的环保措施。随着国际社会环保意识的增强，在国际援助和国际投资中，环保工程倍受重视。当前，许多国家不仅陆续推出严格的环保法规，而且在进出口贸易中，无论是工业国家还是“新兴工业国家”，大都制定“环保产品优先”的原则，美国克林顿总统明确提出：对环保产品要制定出口优惠政策；欧洲联盟已制定“绿色输入”政策；东盟国家决定对环保产品征收低关税；这对国际贸易的发展将产生深远的影响。四、国际贸易方式正处在变革中（一）无纸贸易逐步盛行无纸贸易（简称EDI），是利用电子数据交换代替传统的纸面单据进行贸易活动，将标准的经济信息通过通讯网络，在商业伙伴的计算机之间进行传输和处理，以实现买卖双方交易的目的。在国际贸易活动中利用EDI，可以大量减少甚至消除在传统贸易过程中的各种纸面文件和单据，避免数据的重复输入，简化工作程序，这不仅能加快信息的反馈速度，可及时得到大量的商业信息，减少差错，降低成本，提高效率，便于管理，在激烈的市场竞争中，还可提供更有利于企业的贸易机会和条件。无纸贸易始于60年代，但到80年代才逐步扩展到国际贸易领域。从1992年开始，美国的进出口贸易报关都采用EDI；日本结合EDI的应用开发了“战略信息系统（SIS）”；韩国也建立了EDI服务系统——韩国贸易网（KT—NET）；我国政府已成立“中国促进EDI应用协调委员会”，负责推动EDI的应用工作；联合国也提出了应用EDI的贸易服务促进项目——ET2000年，联合国国际贸易法委员会（UNCITRAL）正在制定有关EDI应用的国际法，为EDI在全球范围内普及使用创造条件。（二）管理贸易发展迅速管理贸易具体讲是指一国政府从国家的宏观经济利益和国内外政策需要出发，对外贸活动进行的行政管理和干预。对国际经济组织来讲就是对国际经济的协调管理。进入90年代后，由于国际市场竞争激烈，工业国家争夺市场份额的斗争越来越尖锐，对资本主义世界经济体系形成强烈的冲击，有关国家出于经济利益的相关性，都认识到加强国际经济协调十分必要。发展中国家通过产业结构和经济结构的调整，以及实施改革开放政策，有力地促进经济的发展，韩国、新加坡、香港、台湾等新兴工业化国家和地区的汽车、家电、服装、电子等商品，已开始与发达国家争夺国际市场份额，发达国家为了保护传统产业的发展，采取了不少的管理贸易措施；随着世界经济区域集团化趋势的进一步加强，各区域经济集团为了保护区内市场，在逐步拆除妨碍商品和生产要素自由流动的各种障碍的同时，对外实行排斥，使新贸易保护主义抬头，各集团之间的非公平垄断竞争和矛盾加剧，非成员国也感到自己的贸易空间在不断缩小，为了扩大出口，保护市场，需要加强对贸易的单边管理和与集团之间的贸易协调管理；随着生产国际化的新发展，跨国公司既需要采取自由贸易，消除对外经济扩张的一切限制，同时也需要借助国家干预外贸来提高竞争力，以保护某些产业免遭外国垄断组织的侵害，因此，90年代管理贸易将得到迅速发展。五、发展对外贸易的几点思考90年代，国际贸易发展的总趋势，对我国出口贸易的发展是机遇和挑战并存。其机遇主要是：1．有利于扩大出口。国际贸易的持续增长，标志着国际市场需求的稳步扩大，为我国出口贸易的发展，提供一个比较有利的国际环境，有利于扩大出口。2．有利于调整出口商品结构。在国际贸易中，制成品特别是资本货物（电器、非电气的机械及运输设备）和高新技术、信息、智能等“软件贸易”占的比重将不断上升，这有利于我国调整出口商品结构，加快发展制成品的出口。其挑战主要表现在：1．增加了我国出口贸易的障碍，而且出口的劳动密集型产品，将面临着更激烈的国际市场竞争。2．增加了我国引进外资和先进技术的难度，独联体和东欧国家在不久的将来，可能成为我国的竞争对手。为使机遇变成现实，充分利用国际环境中的有利因素，我国应采取下列措施：1．实行全球性的信息战略。建立健全全球性的行销网络。在世界各地寻求市场机遇，推动外贸活动的开展。2．根据国际市场需求，调整产业结构。特别要对无污染、附加值高、轻型化、多功能等市场发展潜力大的产品加以扶植，并作为经济发展的策略工业对待。3．积极开展跨国经营。我国企业应跳出传统行业的单一产品生产框架，踊跃涉足其他新的领域，开展多种经营，积极参加跨行业的竞争。企业在开拓国际市场时，为了绕过对方的贸易壁垒，可以输出劳务，承包工程，以资本输出代替商品输出，开展跨国、跨地区经营，采取在东道国（地区）投资建厂、合资办厂、收买股份、兼并等手段，就地生产，就地销售。要鼓励有条件的大型企业发展跨国战略联盟。4．进一步扩大市场开放度，加强法制，改善投资环境。
RENMINBI CONTROVERSIESMorris GoldsteinNo topic in international monetary economics has probably been more debated over the past three years than what should be done about China’s currency regime and about the exchange rate for the renminbi (RMB) In this article, I take up three questions that are at the center of the current debate, namely:① Is the RMB undervalued and, if so, by how much?② Would an RMB appreciation of 20–25 percent be particularly harmful for China’s economic growth and development, as well as for its domestic financial stability? ③ Was the July 21, 2005, currency reform a large or tiny step forward？⑴Is the RMB Undervalued?Among the many approaches available for estimating equilibrium exchange rates, I prefer two: the “underlying balance” approach and the “global payments” In both cases, I am going to assume that no wholesale change occurs in China’s capital-account regime over say, the next three ⑵ Under the underlying balance approach, one asks what level of the real effective exchange rate—that is, the trade-weighted average of nominal exchange rates adjusted for inflation differentials between the home country and its trading partners—would produce equilibrium in the home country’s balance of payments, where equilibrium means an “underlying” current account position that is approximately equal (and opposite in sign) to “normal” net capital Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—as a rough estimate of its normal net capital ⑶ China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by speculative capital inflows, induced primarily by an expected appreciation of the RMBIf normal net capital flows are in surplus by 5 percent of GDP, equilibrium then calls for an underlying current account deficit equal to 5 percent of GDP The “underlying current account” can be defined as the actual current account balance adjusted for two factors: cyclical movements in the economy that make the demand for imports unusually high or low, and the lagged trade effects of earlier exchange rate changes that are not yet visible in the published China’s actual, overall current account surpluses in 2003 and 2004 were 3 and 2 percent of GDP, The underlying current account surplus was undoubtedly higher than the actual ones in those two years because the overheated state of the Chinese economy was pushing the demand for imports way up and because the real, trade-weighted value of the RMB depreciated during that period, suggesting positive trade-balance effects in the pipeline (see Goldstein 2004) Without pretending to undue precision, the underlying current account surplus in 2003–2004 was probably in the neighborhood of 5–5 percent of GDP China’s actual global current account surplus in 2005 was much larger Based on official figures just recently released, the actual current account surplus last year was 2 percent of GDP The underlying surplus would be somewhat lower because domestic demand growth slowed in China last year—reducing the growth of imports— and because the RMB appreciated in real, trade-weighted terms in ⑷ Nevertheless, the underlying current account surplus in 2005 was likely on the order of 5–6 percent of GDP The foregoing implies that China’s current account balance needs to deteriorate by a whopping 5–5 percent of GDP to restore equilibrium to its overall balance of If one does some simulations with a small trade model to calculate what size real appreciation of the RMB would generate such a large negative swing in China’s current account—using a range of plausible price elasticities, giving due consideration to how the high import content of China’s exports affects its export prices, and making alternative assumptions about the second-round feedback effects of income changes on the demand for imports—the answers tend to congregate in the 20–35 percent ⑸ Note again that this estimate of undervaluation of the MB is not dependent either on the large speculative capital inflows of recent years or on China’s large and rising bilateral trade surplus with the United SA second complementary approach, the global payments approach, asks what role RMB adjustment should play in the correction of large existing payments imbalances around the world—not just in C Here, the elephant in the room is the large US current account deficit—running at about 5 percent of GDP in 2005 and threatening to go higher over the medium term (see Cline 2005) An analysis of US external debt dynamics suggests that a deficit only about half that size is likely to be As argued by Mussa (2005) and others, one key element in any effective strategy to correct the US external imbalance, while simultaneously sustaining healthy global economic growth, is a further depreciation in the real trade-weighted dollar from its current level—on the order of 15–25 ⑹ Emerging Asia plus Japan account for about a 40 percent weight in the trade-weighted dollar Whereas the euro, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar, among other market-determined exchange rates, have shown strong (real effective) appreciations during the first wave of dollar depreciation (since February 2002), the Asian currencies—with the notable exceptions of the Korean won and Indonesian rupiah—have either appreciated only slightly (, Thai baht and the Indian rupee) or have actually ⑺In some cases (the Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and the Taiwanese dollar), the depreciation has been large despite sizable current account If the Asian currencies do not lead the way in the needed second wave of dollar depreciation, either the resulting overall depreciation of the dollar will be too small, or the burden of appreciation will fall heavily on economies where a further large appreciation would not be warranted by their economic circumstances (see Goldstein 2005)⑻ Under the global payments approach, China is a prime candidate for significant real currency appreciation: it has experienced massive reserve accumulation equal to 10 percent of GDP over each of the past three years; its real, trade-weighted exchange rate has depreciated over this period; and it has now recorded 10 successive quarters of 9 percent plus economic Moreover, an appreciation of the RMB would likely induce some appreciation in some other Asian To sum up, the message I take away from these approaches to assessing the equilibrium value of the RMB is that it remains significantly undervalued on a real, trade-weighted basis— on the order of 20– 35 ⑼A wholesale liberalization of controls on capital outflows could wipe out most of this undervaluation, but the fragile state of China’s banking system makes this policy neither desirable nor likely for the next several True, there are other approaches to valuing the RMB (, purchasing-power-parity calculations, structural models of the RMB, and VAR models), and there are other ad hoc adjustments one could make to obtain estimates of underlying current accounts and normal capital None of those approaches, however, yields results persuasive enough and different enough to overturn the large undervaluation ⑽Would an RMB Revaluation Be Bad for China’s Growth and Financial Stability?Many have argued that even if the RMB is undervalued, it would be most unwise to undertake a large revaluation since this could be catastrophic for China’s growth and economic development, as well as its social and financial In this context, some opponents of RMB revaluation emphasize the large-scale and continuing migration out of agriculture, the sizable employment losses in state-owned industries, and the large annual flow of graduates looking for Taken together, these labor force trends are said to create irresistible social pressures for rapid economic growth that can only be accommodated with the high export growth emanating from a highly undervalued exchange Still others opposed to revaluation assert that the rigid link of the RMB to the dollar—along with its undervaluation —has served as an essential pillar of China’s domestic financial stability and as a way of encouraging large inflows of foreign direct investment that can compensate for the weaknesses of China’s domestic banking I find these arguments against a significant RMB revaluation Getting the arguments right about the benefits and costs of an RMB revaluation is important because China cannot be expected to undertake an exchange rate policy that is perceived to be counter to its self- Let me offer three First, it is an exaggeration both to equate any significant real appreciation of the RMB with very slow growth and to regard exports as the main driver of China’s Between 1994 and early 2002 the real, trade-weighted exchange rate of the RMB appreciated by almost 30 percent (see Figure 1), yet the Chinese economy grew at an average annual rate of 9 percent and growth never dipped below 7 percent growth in any single year (see Figure 2) True, this large real appreciation of the RMB did not come all at once, but there were individual years in which the appreciation was 8 percent or more (13 percent in 1997 and 8 percent in 2000)⑾Also, the record over this eight-year period demonstrates that the Chinese economy is capable of growing at a robust pace when the real exchange rate is following strong trend The export-to-GDP ratio in China is now approaching 35 But as Anderson (2005a) has recently argued, this does not mean that the Chinese economy is “ export ” Adjusting for the relatively low domestic content of exports makes China’s “ true” export exposure lower than suggested by the headline export-to-GDP Anderson (2005a) goes on to argue that one salient characteristic of an export-led economy is that fluctuations in trade growth should be similar to those in broader GDP growth— whereas an economy that relies more on domestic demand for growth would display fluctuations in GDP growth that were considerably smaller than those for trade On this count, Anderson (2005a) finds that while the standard deviation of trade growth has been very similar to the standard deviation of GDP growth for a group of seven Asian economies, the standard deviation of GDP growth has been only about a third as high as that for trade growth in C In fact, the relationship between GDP growth and trade growth in China looks much closer to that in the United States than it does to China’s Asian
国际贸易核心期刊共有17本1、国际贸易问题 2、国际贸易 3、财贸经济 4、商业经济与管理 5、国际经贸探索 6、商业研究 7、销售与市场 8、广东商学院学报 9、商业时代10、中国商贸 11、价格理论与实践 12、北京工商大学学报社会科学版 13、国际经济合作 14、对外经贸实务 15、江苏商论 16、国际商务研究 17、中国物流与采购扩展资料：其中国际贸易问题算是核心期刊里较为权威的期刊，属于对外贸易专业理论刊物，主要宣传我国对外贸易的方针、政策，研究国际经贸问题，分析国际经贸动态，介绍最新国际贸易理论。读者对象为外经贸主管部门和业务部门的工作人员，国际经贸理论的研究人员及大专院校师生，各国驻华商务人员。较之国际贸易问题的权威性，国际商务研究侧重点又有不同，主要报道国际贸易方面的理论研究成果和最新信息，介绍国际商务知识。读者对象为对外经贸企事业单位职工、经济理论研究工作者、经济院校师生等。有英文目次。参考资料来源：百度百科-国际贸易问题百度百科-国际贸易（商品和劳务的国际交换活动）百度百科-核心期刊目录
1、国际贸易问题 2、国际贸易 3、财贸经济 4、商业经济与管理 5、国际经贸探索 6、商业研究 7、销售与市场 8、广东商学院学报 9、商业时代10、中国商贸 11、价格理论与实践 12、北京工商大学学报社会科学版 13、国际经济合作 14、对外经贸实务 15、江苏商论 16、国际商务研究 17、中国物流与采购
主管单位：中国国际贸易促进委员会主办单位：中国国际贸易促进委员会编辑出版：《中国对外贸易》杂志社国内统一刊号：CN11—1020/F国际统一刊号：ISSN0009-4498国内发行：《中国对外贸易》杂志社发行部国外发行：中国图书进出口(集团)总公司《中国对外贸易》杂志由中国国际贸易促进委员会（CCPIT）、中国国际商会（CCOIC）主办，设中、英文两刊，是中国创刊最早，集专业性、商务性、高效性于一体的对经贸界有影响的杂志。是世界了解中国、中国走向世界的重要窗口之一。中国对外贸易杂志社秉承贸促会50多年出版经验之精华，充分发挥现代传媒手段，并不断发展、创新，以印刷版、电子版、网络版立体全方位的为政府与企业发展对外经济贸易、开拓国内外市场提供信息咨询、宣传服务。并参与、组办各种大型国际会议及对外交流活动。中国对外贸易杂志社还编辑出版《新前程》、《国际融资》等杂志。《中国对外贸易》1984年改为月刊，以中、英、法、德、西班牙、意大利及日本7种版本向160多个国家和地区发行。一些国外的著名学府和研究机构的图书馆均有收藏。《中国对外贸易》（中文）为月刊，每月15日出版，大16开本，彩色印刷，国内外公开发行。全国统一刊号：CN11-1019/F，国际标准刊号：ISSN1000-954X，邮发代号82-959。每册定价16元人民币。《中国对外贸易》是对外贸易指数是反映一国在一定时期内进出口商品价值、价格和数量变动趋势及幅度的统计指标。宏观上它是国民经济核算体系的重要组成部分，是进行经济分析和预测不可缺少的重要指标和工具，是国家掌控市场价格的重要工具，是深层次的经济决策信息；微观上它是行业、企业洞察市场行情，驾驭市场风雨，握住这只“看不见的手的有效手段。历史上的贸易大国，如荷兰、英国、德国、美国等，很早就开始编制、发布对外贸易指数，并在政府、企业、金融证券研究机构等社会各界得到广泛的应用。 ·趋势 经贸领域新思路、新观点、发展动向·聚集 重大经贸事件、投资经贸活动报道·话题 经贸观察、专栏、调研报告、实战案例·对话 国际经贸领域重要人物、企业领袖专访·企业风采 经贸投资企业宣传推荐、形象展示 ·中国贸促会及中国国际商会会员单位及17家海外商务代表处·中国外经贸、质检商检、海关系统政府部门及相关机构团体·国外驻华使领馆、商会团体、重点投资促进机构·中国5000家最大对外经贸企业、500家最大外商投资企业·外商独资企业、中外合资合作企业·全球500强企业中与中国经贸往来的企业·全国重点经贸城市及主要开发区、高新区、保税区《China's Foreign Trade》杂志于1956年在周恩来总理的支持领导下创刊，是新中国创刊最早的权威性经贸类英文杂志，读者遍布170多个国家和地区。集权威性、商业性、综合性为一体具针对性强、发行面广、传播渠道多等特点，是国内国际经贸界跟踪了解中国经贸活动、中国企业及产品的主要媒介。杂志内容积淀下20多个精品栏目设置，如特别报道、焦点、大使访谈、高端访谈、商务交流、环球航空、商务旅游、中国汽车等，及时跟进中国及全球经贸最新动态和话题，为读者提供最权威的政策和专家解读。《China's Foreign Trade》杂志为全彩色印刷杂志，国内刊号CN11-1020/F，国际刊号ISSN0009-4498。除在中国国内发行外，并通过中国国际图书贸易总公司、中国驻外使（领）馆和商务机构、中国国际贸易促进委员会和中国国际商会驻外代表处、中国在国内外举办和参加的经济贸易展览会、五大洲40个大型国际展（博）览会、全球500强驻华机构及国内大型对外贸易企业集团以及13家国际航空公司航班，面向170多个国家和地区的商业人士发送，是中国海外订阅量最大的经贸类英文双效期刊。《China's Foreign Trade》为中国国际贸易促进委员会历次展会、历届广交会、华交会、科博会、制博会、欧盟25国洽谈会等大型经贸盛会中介绍中国产品、面向外商的唯一指定英文刊物，而且被指定为中国国家领导人出访所携唯一刊物和外交部指定各驻外使馆对外宣传交流的刊物。 《中国对外贸易》杂志于1956年创刊，前身是由外贸部主办的《中华人民共和国对外贸易》杂志，1958年由中国贸促会接办杂志，当时该杂志是外贸系统中央一级唯一的对外宣传刊物，政治地位较高。1964年中国对外贸易杂志社成立，著名的无党派人士田一明成为第一任社长和总编辑。后来由于国内政治气候的变化，经历了几次反复的停刊、复刊。 1973年在周恩来总理和李先念副总理的关怀下复刊，并请郭沫若同志题写了《中国对外贸易》刊名。1979年《中国对外贸易》杂志由季刊改为双月刊，1984年又进而改为月刊，以中、英、法、西班牙4种文版向160多个国家和地区发行。一些国外的著名学府和研究机构的图书馆均有收藏。在宣传中国出口商品方面，《中国对外贸易》杂志为生产企业和外贸公司做了许多服务工作，1987年中国轻工业品进出口总公司在海南省召开全国各地分公司人员参加的对外宣传会议上，在以不记名投票评选出的最佳媒介中，《中国对外贸易》名列第一。进入90年代以后，《中国对外贸易》杂志步入平稳的发展阶段，已成为集专业性、商业性、高效性于一体的对外经贸权威刊物。《中国对外贸易》杂志在美国、俄罗斯、意大利、巴西、德国、东南亚、欧盟等近30多个国家和地区拥有固定读者，在国内除进入中国贸促会、商务部主办的大型会议会场外，还成为广交会(广州)、高交会(深圳)、东盟博览会(南宁)、西博会(成都)、科博会(北京)、华交会(上海)等知名会展活动的指定宣传媒体，每届在会场均有派送。 整顿稀土乱局中国应惜土 米帅失去超国民待遇中国仍是外企投资热地吗? 罗书宏中日关系下一步 梅新育中美如何化解人民币之争 乔治·马格纳斯促进口措施呼之欲出在华外商评说中国市场 罗书宏龙的传人就应为祖国服务——记澳大利亚福建工商联谊总会会长陈展垣 金英中国企业海外淘金潮起 江亮房地产泡沫:日本的十年之痛 高潮网络购物社交化 竹子俊中外版权合作向纵深迈进——来自第17届北京国际图书博览会的报告 罗书宏波兰:下一个天然气大国? 王莉莉投资能源新贵——蒙古 王莉莉英国旅游业报告:金砖四国旅英游客将大幅增长 王莉莉海地震后重建,中企有用武之地 罗书宏摩尔多瓦农业、基建急需外国投资 罗书宏我国维生素C生产商被控操纵价格案警示企业出口价格联盟须慎行 刘燕南城市交响乐诠释狮城多元文化 宗欣印度尼西亚馆馆长:半开放设计展现千岛之国热情 宗欣中国制造网副总裁兼运营总监黄良发:线上线下融合是会展业发展必然趋势 赵爱玲高级管理人员薪酬激励与企业绩效的关联之争:孰是孰非? 王旭升指尖转动牵引网游市场奔向广阔蓝海 林枫天津爱迪通智科技有限公司董事长伍筱姗:网游市场可持续发展的动力来自于绿色网游 赵爱玲近观丹麦的简约主义生活 孟秋行政座驾的巅峰对决奔驰新E系VS宝马新5系 张越新的增长引擎和投资契机 马骏郎咸平:美国正把中国复制成第二个日本 郎咸平出口退税取消,焉知非福? 叶子保增长还是减赤字,两难问题 方宁，罗书宏金融监管,各国求同存异 方宁，罗书宏 期刊查询网站
RENMINBI CONTROVERSIESMorris GoldsteinNo topic in international monetary economics has probably been more debated over the past three years than what should be done about China’s currency regime and about the exchange rate for the renminbi (RMB) In this article, I take up three questions that are at the center of the current debate, namely:① Is the RMB undervalued and, if so, by how much?② Would an RMB appreciation of 20–25 percent be particularly harmful for China’s economic growth and development, as well as for its domestic financial stability? ③ Was the July 21, 2005, currency reform a large or tiny step forward？⑴Is the RMB Undervalued?Among the many approaches available for estimating equilibrium exchange rates, I prefer two: the “underlying balance” approach and the “global payments” In both cases, I am going to assume that no wholesale change occurs in China’s capital-account regime over say, the next three ⑵ Under the underlying balance approach, one asks what level of the real effective exchange rate—that is, the trade-weighted average of nominal exchange rates adjusted for inflation differentials between the home country and its trading partners—would produce equilibrium in the home country’s balance of payments, where equilibrium means an “underlying” current account position that is approximately equal (and opposite in sign) to “normal” net capital Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—as a rough estimate of its normal net capital ⑶ China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by speculative capital inflows, induced primarily by an expected appreciation of the RMBIf normal net capital flows are in surplus by 5 percent of GDP, equilibrium then calls for an underlying current account deficit equal to 5 percent of GDP The “underlying current account” can be defined as the actual current account balance adjusted for two factors: cyclical movements in the economy that make the demand for imports unusually high or low, and the lagged trade effects of earlier exchange rate changes that are not yet visible in the published China’s actual, overall current account surpluses in 2003 and 2004 were 3 and 2 percent of GDP, The underlying current account surplus was undoubtedly higher than the actual ones in those two years because the overheated state of the Chinese economy was pushing the demand for imports way up and because the real, trade-weighted value of the RMB depreciated during that period, suggesting positive trade-balance effects in the pipeline (see Goldstein 2004) Without pretending to undue precision, the underlying current account surplus in 2003–2004 was probably in the neighborhood of 5–5 percent of GDP China’s actual global current account surplus in 2005 was much larger Based on official figures just recently released, the actual current account surplus last year was 2 percent of GDP The underlying surplus would be somewhat lower because domestic demand growth slowed in China last year—reducing the growth of imports— and because the RMB appreciated in real, trade-weighted terms in ⑷ Nevertheless, the underlying current account surplus in 2005 was likely on the order of 5–6 percent of GDP The foregoing implies that China’s current account balance needs to deteriorate by a whopping 5–5 percent of GDP to restore equilibrium to its overall balance of If one does some simulations with a small trade model to calculate what size real appreciation of the RMB would generate such a large negative swing in China’s current account—using a range of plausible price elasticities, giving due consideration to how the high import content of China’s exports affects its export prices, and making alternative assumptions about the second-round feedback effects of income changes on the demand for imports—the answers tend to congregate in the 20–35 percent ⑸ Note again that this estimate of undervaluation of the MB is not dependent either on the large speculative capital inflows of recent years or on China’s large and rising bilateral trade surplus with the United SA second complementary approach, the global payments approach, asks what role RMB adjustment should play in the correction of large existing payments imbalances around the world—not just in C Here, the elephant in the room is the large US current account deficit—running at about 5 percent of GDP in 2005 and threatening to go higher over the medium term (see Cline 2005) An analysis of US external debt dynamics suggests that a deficit only about half that size is likely to be As argued by Mussa (2005) and others, one key element in any effective strategy to correct the US external imbalance, while simultaneously sustaining healthy global economic growth, is a further depreciation in the real trade-weighted dollar from its current level—on the order of 15–25 ⑹ Emerging Asia plus Japan account for about a 40 percent weight in the trade-weighted dollar Whereas the euro, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar, among other market-determined exchange rates, have shown strong (real effective) appreciations during the first wave of dollar depreciation (since February 2002), the Asian currencies—with the notable exceptions of the Korean won and Indonesian rupiah—have either appreciated only slightly (, Thai baht and the Indian rupee) or have actually ⑺In some cases (the Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and the Taiwanese dollar), the depreciation has been large despite sizable current account If the Asian currencies do not lead the way in the needed second wave of dollar depreciation, either the resulting overall depreciation of the dollar will be too small, or the burden of appreciation will fall heavily on economies where a further large appreciation would not be warranted by their economic circumstances (see Goldstein 2005)⑻ Under the global payments approach, China is a prime candidate for significant real currency appreciation: it has experienced massive reserve accumulation equal to 10 percent of GDP over each of the past three years; its real, trade-weighted exchange rate has depreciated over this period; and it has now recorded 10 successive quarters of 9 percent plus economic Moreover, an appreciation of the RMB would likely induce some appreciation in some other Asian To sum up, the message I take away from these approaches to assessing the equilibrium value of the RMB is that it remains significantly undervalued on a real, trade-weighted basis— on the order of 20– 35 ⑼A wholesale liberalization of controls on capital outflows could wipe out most of this undervaluation, but the fragile state of China’s banking system makes this policy neither desirable nor likely for the next several True, there are other approaches to valuing the RMB (, purchasing-power-parity calculations, structural models of the RMB, and VAR models), and there are other ad hoc adjustments one could make to obtain estimates of underlying current accounts and normal capital None of those approaches, however, yields results persuasive enough and different enough to overturn the large undervaluation ⑽Would an RMB Revaluation Be Bad for China’s Growth and Financial Stability?Many have argued that even if the RMB is undervalued, it would be most unwise to undertake a large revaluation since this could be catastrophic for China’s growth and economic development, as well as its social and financial In this context, some opponents of RMB revaluation emphasize the large-scale and continuing migration out of agriculture, the sizable employment losses in state-owned industries, and the large annual flow of graduates looking for Taken together, these labor force trends are said to create irresistible social pressures for rapid economic growth that can only be accommodated with the high export growth emanating from a highly undervalued exchange Still others opposed to revaluation assert that the rigid link of the RMB to the dollar—along with its undervaluation —has served as an essential pillar of China’s domestic financial stability and as a way of encouraging large inflows of foreign direct investment that can compensate for the weaknesses of China’s domestic banking I find these arguments against a significant RMB revaluation Getting the arguments right about the benefits and costs of an RMB revaluation is important because China cannot be expected to undertake an exchange rate policy that is perceived to be counter to its self- Let me offer three First, it is an exaggeration both to equate any significant real appreciation of the RMB with very slow growth and to regard exports as the main driver of China’s Between 1994 and early 2002 the real, trade-weighted exchange rate of the RMB appreciated by almost 30 percent (see Figure 1), yet the Chinese economy grew at an average annual rate of 9 percent and growth never dipped below 7 percent growth in any single year (see Figure 2) True, this large real appreciation of the RMB did not come all at once, but there were individual years in which the appreciation was 8 percent or more (13 percent in 1997 and 8 percent in 2000)⑾Also, the record over this eight-year period demonstrates that the Chinese economy is capable of growing at a robust pace when the real exchange rate is following strong trend The export-to-GDP ratio in China is now approaching 35 But as Anderson (2005a) has recently argued, this does not mean that the Chinese economy is “ export ” Adjusting for the relatively low domestic content of exports makes China’s “ true” export exposure lower than suggested by the headline export-to-GDP Anderson (2005a) goes on to argue that one salient characteristic of an export-led economy is that fluctuations in trade growth should be similar to those in broader GDP growth— whereas an economy that relies more on domestic demand for growth would display fluctuations in GDP growth that were considerably smaller than those for trade On this count, Anderson (2005a) finds that while the standard deviation of trade growth has been very similar to the standard deviation of GDP growth for a group of seven Asian economies, the standard deviation of GDP growth has been only about a third as high as that for trade growth in C In fact, the relationship between GDP growth and trade growth in China looks much closer to that in the United States than it does to China’s Asian
浅探当代国际贸易新理论对我国对外贸易战略的启示在我国对外贸易规模不断扩大的今天，要想提高我国的国际竞争力，必须重视国际上20世纪70年代以后兴起的国际贸易新理论，实施创新的对外贸易战略，打造具有国际竞争优势的产业。本文通过研究当代国际贸易理论的新发展对我国外贸发展的启示，分析探讨了我国应该如何制定相应的政策，采取相应的对策来促进我国对外贸易的发展。一、当代国际贸易理论的新进展二战后随着科学技术的进步和生产力的不断发展，国际贸易的规模、商品结构和地区分布也发生了很大变化。经济学家在国际贸易理论研究中不断探索，20世纪70年代以来先后出现的影响较大的国际贸易新理论有以下几种：1、战略性贸易政策理论战略性贸易政策理论产生于2O世纪7O年代以来“新贸易保护主义”盛行的背景之下，由美国经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼等人于2O世纪8O年代中期提出，主要内容包括两方面：（1）以内部规模经济为基础的利润转移理论；（2）以外部规模经济为基础的外部经济理论。2、产业内贸易理论20世纪70年代格鲁贝尔和劳埃德等人开创了产业内贸易理论研究，到20世纪80年代初美国经济学家克鲁格曼进一步推动了这一理论的发展。该理论不同于侧重论述产业间贸易的传统贸易理论，代写毕业论文它侧重研究贸易双方在同一产业中既出口又进口同类异质产品的产业内贸易。在不完全竞争产业中，规模经济和产品差异是产业内贸易形成的决定因素。3、产品生命周期理论产品生命周期理论由美国销售学家弗农于1966年首先提出，经威尔斯、赫希哲等人不断完善。产品生命周期理论认为，由于技术创新和扩散，制成品和生物一样具有生命周期。产品生命周期包括五个阶段：(1)新生期；(2)成长期；(3)成熟期；(4)销售下降期；(5)让与期。4、国家竞争优势理论20世纪80年代以来，美国哈佛大学的迈克尔·波特提出并完善了国家竞争优势理论。国家竞争优势理论与传统比较优势理论和要素禀赋理论不同之处在于，该理论认为一个国家之所以能够兴旺发达，其根本原因在于该国的国际竞争优势，这种竞争优势源于一个相互增强的系统，在这个系统中，有四个关键因素影响一国在国际市场上建立和保持竞争优势的能力，这四个因素是：(1)生产要素；(2)国内需求；(3)相关产业；(4)企业战略、组织和竞争度。二、当代国际贸易新理论对我国对外贸易战略的启示1、积极转化国家的竞争优势比较优势是由一国资源禀赋和交易条件所决定的静态优势，是获取竞争优势的条件。竞争优势则是一种将潜在优势转化为现实优势的综合能力的作用结果。比较优势作为一种潜在优势，只有最终转化为竞争优势，才能形成真正的出口竞争力。根据生产要素禀赋，我国一直以来具有劳动力资源的比较优势，但是，在当今国际市场上劳动密集型产品的比较优势并不一定具有国际竞争优势。要确立把比较优势转换为竞争优势的外贸战略。2、高新技术产业发展至关重要由国际产品生命周期理论可以推知：创新国是国际贸易利益的最大获益者。这是因为：在产品的新生期和成长期，创新国以其技术优势垄断了国内和国际市场，因而可以获得大量超额垄断利润；在产品的成熟期进入所谓的“大规模生产”阶段，创新国可以获得巨额规模经济效益；在产品的销售下降期和让与期，创新国在国外投资建厂，输出其知识产权和品牌，延长其产品的生命周期，在国际市场上继续赚取利润。3、发展高层次产业内贸易是提高对外贸易竞争力的重要手段随着国际经济贸易的发展，产业内贸易在给各贸易国带来贸易利益的同时，Probe into New Theory of International Trade Implications of China Foreign Trade Strategy Growing scale of foreign trade in China today, in order to enhance China's international competitiveness, must pay attention to the international community 70 years after the 20th century Xingqi new theory of international trade, the implementation of the Duiwaimaoyi innovation strategy, create an international competitive advantage in the This paper studies the contemporary new development of international trade theory enlightenment for the development of China's foreign trade, analysis of how China should formulate corresponding policies and take corresponding measures to promote the development of China's foreign First, the contemporary theory of international trade, new progress After World War II with the scientific and technological progress and productivity of the continuous development of international trade size, structure and regional distribution of goods, great changes have taken Theory of international trade economist and continuously explore the 20th century, has emerged since the 70's influential new theory of international trade, the following: 1, Strategic Trade Policy Strategic trade policy arise from 7O 2O century since the "new trade protectionism," the prevalence of background, the US economist Paul Krugman, who in the mid 8O 2O century, proposed, mainly including two aspects : (1) internal economies of scale-based theory of profit transfer; (2) based on external economies of scale external economic 2, intra-industry trade theory 20th century 70s Grubel and Lloyd, who created the industry trade theory, to the early 20th century US economist Paul Krugman of 80 to further promote the development of this The theory is different from the focus on inter-industry trade paper the traditional trade theory, on behalf of my thesis research is focused on trade, both sides in the same industry, the export of products they import the same heterogeneous industry Not perfectly competitive industries, economies of scale and product differentiation is the formation of intra-industry trade 3, the product life cycle theory Product life cycle theory Sales Vernon by the United States first proposed in 1966 by Prince, He Xizhe and others Product life cycle theory, as technological innovation and diffusion, and biological products, like life- Product life cycle consists of five stages: (1) Neonatal; (2) growth stage; (3) maturity; (4) decline of sales; (5) for and 4, Competitive Advantage of Nations Since the 80s of the 20th century, Harvard's Michael Porter and improve the Competitive Advantage of N Competitive Advantage of Nations and the traditional theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory of difference is, the theory that a country has been able to flourish, and the fundamental reason is the country's international competitive advantage, this competitive advantage derived from a mutually reinforcing system, in this system, there are four key factors that affect a country in the international market, establish and maintain a competitive edge in the ability of these four factors are: (1) factors of production; (2) domestic demand; (3) related industries ; (4) business strategy, organizational and competitive Second, the contemporary theory of international trade on China's foreign trade strategy for new inspiration 1, the positive transformation of the national competitive advantage Comparative advantage in natural resources by a country and trading conditions determine the static strengths are the conditions for competitive Competitive advantage is a way to advantage the potential into real ability to effect the comprehensive Comparative advantage as a potential advantage, only the final into a competitive advantage, to form a real export According to the production factor endowment, along with China's comparative advantage in labor resources, but in today's international market, the comparative advantage of labor-intensive products do not necessarily have an international competitive To establish the comparative advantages into competitive advantages in foreign trade 2, high-tech industries vital to the development By the international product life cycle theory can be deduced: Innovation is the international trade interests of the country's biggest This is because: the product of Neonatal and growth, innovation and technical superiority of its state monopoly of domestic and international markets, and thus get a lot of excess monopoly profits; in product maturity into the so-called "mass production" stage, innovation States can get huge economies of scale; in product sales were down period and give and of innovation invest and build factories in foreign countries, the output of its intellectual property and brand to extend its product life Zhou Qi, in the international market continue to make a 3, the development of high-level intra-industry trade is to improve the competitiveness of an important means of foreign trade With the international economic and trade development, intra-industry trade in all trading nations to bring trade interests, 翻译为：
你可以参考如下文献资料: １、 杨良宜著：《信用证》，中国政法大学出版社1998年版 2、 韩德培主编：《国际私法新论》，武汉大学出版社1997年版 3、 薛兆诚著：《信用证实务大全》，香港万源财经资讯公司1986年版 4、 王江雨译：《美国统一商法典---信用证篇》，中国法制出版社1998年版 5、 杨良宜著：《外贸及海运 货物索赔新发展》，大连海运学院1994年版 6、 顾民著：《最新信用证操作指南》，对外经济贸易大学出版社2000年版 7、 陈正云著：《金融欺诈及其防治》，法律出版社1997年版 ------------------------------ 贸茂白菜萝卜 贸茂网－合众外贸帮助团－以振兴中华贸易为己任。
浅探当代国际贸易新理论对我国对外贸易战略的启示在我国对外贸易规模不断扩大的今天，要想提高我国的国际竞争力，必须重视国际上20世纪70年代以后兴起的国际贸易新理论，实施创新的对外贸易战略，打造具有国际竞争优势的产业。本文通过研究当代国际贸易理论的新发展对我国外贸发展的启示，分析探讨了我国应该如何制定相应的政策，采取相应的对策来促进我国对外贸易的发展。一、当代国际贸易理论的新进展二战后随着科学技术的进步和生产力的不断发展，国际贸易的规模、商品结构和地区分布也发生了很大变化。经济学家在国际贸易理论研究中不断探索，20世纪70年代以来先后出现的影响较大的国际贸易新理论有以下几种：1、战略性贸易政策理论战略性贸易政策理论产生于2O世纪7O年代以来“新贸易保护主义”盛行的背景之下，由美国经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼等人于2O世纪8O年代中期提出，主要内容包括两方面：（1）以内部规模经济为基础的利润转移理论；（2）以外部规模经济为基础的外部经济理论。2、产业内贸易理论20世纪70年代格鲁贝尔和劳埃德等人开创了产业内贸易理论研究，到20世纪80年代初美国经济学家克鲁格曼进一步推动了这一理论的发展。该理论不同于侧重论述产业间贸易的传统贸易理论，代写毕业论文它侧重研究贸易双方在同一产业中既出口又进口同类异质产品的产业内贸易。在不完全竞争产业中，规模经济和产品差异是产业内贸易形成的决定因素。3、产品生命周期理论产品生命周期理论由美国销售学家弗农于1966年首先提出，经威尔斯、赫希哲等人不断完善。产品生命周期理论认为，由于技术创新和扩散，制成品和生物一样具有生命周期。产品生命周期包括五个阶段：(1)新生期；(2)成长期；(3)成熟期；(4)销售下降期；(5)让与期。4、国家竞争优势理论20世纪80年代以来，美国哈佛大学的迈克尔·波特提出并完善了国家竞争优势理论。国家竞争优势理论与传统比较优势理论和要素禀赋理论不同之处在于，该理论认为一个国家之所以能够兴旺发达，其根本原因在于该国的国际竞争优势，这种竞争优势源于一个相互增强的系统，在这个系统中，有四个关键因素影响一国在国际市场上建立和保持竞争优势的能力，这四个因素是：(1)生产要素；(2)国内需求；(3)相关产业；(4)企业战略、组织和竞争度。二、当代国际贸易新理论对我国对外贸易战略的启示1、积极转化国家的竞争优势比较优势是由一国资源禀赋和交易条件所决定的静态优势，是获取竞争优势的条件。竞争优势则是一种将潜在优势转化为现实优势的综合能力的作用结果。比较优势作为一种潜在优势，只有最终转化为竞争优势，才能形成真正的出口竞争力。根据生产要素禀赋，我国一直以来具有劳动力资源的比较优势，但是，在当今国际市场上劳动密集型产品的比较优势并不一定具有国际竞争优势。要确立把比较优势转换为竞争优势的外贸战略。2、高新技术产业发展至关重要由国际产品生命周期理论可以推知：创新国是国际贸易利益的最大获益者。这是因为：在产品的新生期和成长期，创新国以其技术优势垄断了国内和国际市场，因而可以获得大量超额垄断利润；在产品的成熟期进入所谓的“大规模生产”阶段，创新国可以获得巨额规模经济效益；在产品的销售下降期和让与期，创新国在国外投资建厂，输出其知识产权和品牌，延长其产品的生命周期，在国际市场上继续赚取利润。3、发展高层次产业内贸易是提高对外贸易竞争力的重要手段随着国际经济贸易的发展，产业内贸易在给各贸易国带来贸易利益的同时，Probe into New Theory of International Trade Implications of China Foreign Trade Strategy Growing scale of foreign trade in China today, in order to enhance China's international competitiveness, must pay attention to the international community 70 years after the 20th century Xingqi new theory of international trade, the implementation of the Duiwaimaoyi innovation strategy, create an international competitive advantage in the This paper studies the contemporary new development of international trade theory enlightenment for the development of China's foreign trade, analysis of how China should formulate corresponding policies and take corresponding measures to promote the development of China's foreign First, the contemporary theory of international trade, new progress After World War II with the scientific and technological progress and productivity of the continuous development of international trade size, structure and regional distribution of goods, great changes have taken Theory of international trade economist and continuously explore the 20th century, has emerged since the 70's influential new theory of international trade, the following: 1, Strategic Trade Policy Strategic trade policy arise from 7O 2O century since the "new trade protectionism," the prevalence of background, the US economist Paul Krugman, who in the mid 8O 2O century, proposed, mainly including two aspects : (1) internal economies of scale-based theory of profit transfer; (2) based on external economies of scale external economic 2, intra-industry trade theory 20th century 70s Grubel and Lloyd, who created the industry trade theory, to the early 20th century US economist Paul Krugman of 80 to further promote the development of this The theory is different from the focus on inter-industry trade paper the traditional trade theory, on behalf of my thesis research is focused on trade, both sides in the same industry, the export of products they import the same heterogeneous industry Not perfectly competitive industries, economies of scale and product differentiation is the formation of intra-industry trade 3, the product life cycle theory Product life cycle theory Sales Vernon by the United States first proposed in 1966 by Prince, He Xizhe and others Product life cycle theory, as technological innovation and diffusion, and biological products, like life- Product life cycle consists of five stages: (1) Neonatal; (2) growth stage; (3) maturity; (4) decline of sales; (5) for and 4, Competitive Advantage of Nations Since the 80s of the 20th century, Harvard's Michael Porter and improve the Competitive Advantage of N Competitive Advantage of Nations and the traditional theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory of difference is, the theory that a country has been able to flourish, and the fundamental reason is the country's international competitive advantage, this competitive advantage derived from a mutually reinforcing system, in this system, there are four key factors that affect a country in the international market, establish and maintain a competitive edge in the ability of these four factors are: (1) factors of production; (2) domestic demand; (3) related industries ; (4) business strategy, organizational and competitive Second, the contemporary theory of international trade on China's foreign trade strategy for new inspiration 1, the positive transformation of the national competitive advantage Comparative advantage in natural resources by a country and trading conditions determine the static strengths are the conditions for competitive Competitive advantage is a way to advantage the potential into real ability to effect the comprehensive Comparative advantage as a potential advantage, only the final into a competitive advantage, to form a real export According to the production factor endowment, along with China's comparative advantage in labor resources, but in today's international market, the comparative advantage of labor-intensive products do not necessarily have an international competitive To establish the comparative advantages into competitive advantages in foreign trade 2, high-tech industries vital to the development By the international product life cycle theory can be deduced: Innovation is the international trade interests of the country's biggest This is because: the product of Neonatal and growth, innovation and technical superiority of its state monopoly of domestic and international markets, and thus get a lot of excess monopoly profits; in product maturity into the so-called "mass production" stage, innovation States can get huge economies of scale; in product sales were down period and give and of innovation invest and build factories in foreign countries, the output of its intellectual property and brand to extend its product life Zhou Qi, in the international market continue to make a 3, the development of high-level intra-industry trade is to improve the competitiveness of an important means of foreign trade With the international economic and trade development, intra-industry trade in all trading nations to bring trade interests, 翻译为：
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中国国际贸易不错
核心期刊只是个笼统的说法，没有完全统一的标准。例如常用的北大图书馆使用的核心期刊目录，隔几年都要修订一下的。建议你问问相关部门有没有自己指定的目录或标准。