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On assessing haze attribution and control measures in China

更新时间:2016-07-05

1. Introductio n

Since the year 2000, haze has occurred more frequently in China, with coarse and fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) concentrations increasing substantially in regions including the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Sichuan Basin, and the Central Shaanxi area. Severe haze can greatly in fluence people’s health on a regional level and damage China’s international reputation, and has become a major challenge to social and economic development. At the beginning of the year 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director General, Dr. Margaret CHAN, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary General, Petteri TAALAS,and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)Executive Director, Eric SOLHEIM, published a report in the WHO Bulletin in January 2017 entitled ‘Working as one UN to address the root environmental causes of ill health’,pointing out ‘There are many compelling reasons why we need to clean up the global environment. One of the most pressing is that a polluted environment is a deadly one.Every year, almost 12.6 million people die from diseases associated with environmental hazards, such as air, water or soil pollution, and climate change. That is one in four deaths worldwide’ (Chan, Solheim, and Taalas 2017). Thus,air pollution is a worldwide challenge, but especially in China.

习近平在2013年的全国宣传思想工作会议上指出,宣传思想工作必须巩固马克思主义在意识形态领域的指导地位,要把系统掌握马克思主义基本理论作为“看家本领”。高校思政课担负着向大学生宣传马克思主义理论的任务,要发出好声音,形成正能量。严峻的就业形势、功利主义思潮的蔓延、大学生自身认识的局限,对思想政治教育(以下简称“思政教育”)提出了严重挑战。帮助大学生认清时代特点,树立正确的世界观、人生观,是高校思政教育的重要内容。

China has invested enormous financial, human, and material resources in reducing the emissions of pollutants, and to promote scientific research and technological development to support the protection of the atmospheric environment. From the research perspective, there have been special research plans supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, China Environment Protection Agency, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences. However, so far, the actual effect is still very limited. Serious air pollution has occurred more frequently in recent years. For example,Tianjin and the surrounding area has suffered from a continuous outbreak of a wide-ranging and persistent haze pollution event since 17 December 2016, with two longterm severe haze pollution processes within 20 days. This serious air pollution situation arouses much fear in eastern China and has led to discussion on the haze immigration issue.

临汾市曲亭水库库区两岸土质岸坡下部为中更新统洪积低液限黏土,与本库区两岸土质类似。据曲亭水库库区两岸水下稳定坡角调查,其左右岸水下稳定坡角略有差异,左岸水下稳定坡角11.0°~19.6°,平均值 14.6°,右岸水下稳定坡角 14.1°~21.1°平均值17.3°,总平均值15.8°。水下稳定坡角α取值参考临汾市曲亭水库库区水下坡角数据,综合考虑,α取15°。

At present, the haze pollution situation and governance in China is in a critical period, but the public and government departments often misunderstand air pollution in terms of its formation, scientific attribution,and reasonable methods of management. This may result in serious problems with respect to the formulation and implementation of policies and measures for the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution.Thus, the motivation of this paper is to offer some clarification on the key issues related to haze attribution and control measures.

2. Quantifying the roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate change is a precondition of reasonable management of air pollution

由于体育旅游专业的复合属性,现有基础师资构成主要是以体育专业出身和旅游专业出身的师资为主。体育院校类和综合高校的体育院系开设体育旅游方向的专业,师资力量的构成主要是体育学教师,旅游院系则主要是旅游管理类教师,缺乏复合型的师资体系和教学队伍。进一步完善教学师资力量结构体系是体育旅游专业人才培养首先需要解决的问题。应加强体育旅游专业人才师资队伍的建设,建立专门的培养机构或者在相关高等院校开设长短期的进修班,培养复合应用型的师资队伍。

Therefore, to alleviate moderate and severe urban air pollution, several measures should be undertaken. First, meteorological/environmental protection departments should try to produce reliable and high spatial resolution weather and air pollution forecast, at least 48 h in advance. Second,relevant government departments should take measures to control pollutant emissions in Beijing city and surrounding areas, at least 24 h in advance, or even 48 h in advance if possible. Third, when the pollution weather has formed,the above control measures should be maintained, until the unfavorable meteorological conditions are destroyed.

3. Understanding the mechanisms governing the interannual variability of air quality from the perspectives of climate variability and emissions control

At present, air pollution in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei is the most prominent and needs to be solved as early as possible. However, the air pollution in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and central Shaanxi region is also quite severe. According to recent research results (Wang, Chen, and Liu 2015; Wang and Chen 2016;Cai et al. 2017), future global warming will very likely further exacerbate the air pollution in eastern China. The reason is that global climate warming will result in a more stable atmosphere and weakening of the lower-level coldair activity, which is not conducive to pollutant diffusion.Therefore, the development of regional air pollution prevention measures and control plans and enforcement is an important and urgent task, in order to limit the air pollution in China.

4. Recognizing the formation processes of severe air pollution and formulating prevention and control regulations in advance

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

On the other hand, it is necessary to recognize that global warming plays an important role in China’s air pollution. It is estimated that nearly 20% of the 30-year longterm increasing trend of air pollution in China is caused by the impact of global warming. However, because this estimation is carried out based on climate–environment coupled earth system modeling, which itself contains much uncertainty, this kind of evaluation is by no means a foregone conclusion. For example, Wang, Chen, and Liu(2015) showed that only the Arctic sea-ice variability may account for more than 40% of the total air pollution variability on interannual to interdecadal scales. Meanwhile,Yin, Wang, and Yuan (2015) demonstrated that East Asian monsoon variability and change can have a significant in fluence on air quality. In addition, Arctic and Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming, atmospheric vertical temperature stratification effects, increased water vapor content, reduction in wind speed, and changes in other climatic factors, can considerably intensify air pollution.Scientific and quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and variability on air pollution calls for further research.

In addition, it is very important to make scientific and quantitative assessments of the relative contributions of various sources of atmospheric pollution in Beijing city in different seasons, in different years, and under different meteorological conditions. However, it is an extremely complex and difficult scientific question, and many uncertainties exist in this regard. Nonetheless, such assessments must be made to provide a scientific basis for reasonable and effective prevention and control measures.

电磁炉的原理是电磁感应现象,其基本原理是:电磁炉基座线圈将家用220V交流电转变成高频交流电从而在线圈周围空间产生高频交变磁场(图2),当该磁场作用于金属锅底时,会产生电磁感应涡流,当涡流作用于锅底时会使锅具产生热量,最后该热量传导至食物,达到加热的目的。[4]

5. Promoting the seasonal prediction of air pollution

Weather forecasts for air pollution are very important in the context of, for example, people’s travel, social outdoor activities, and even some activities for the defense sector.Therefore, it is necessary to consider the interaction between atmospheric circulation and atmospheric chemical processes(such as the impact of particles on radiation and cloud and its feedback mechanism) besides traditional weather forecasts. This can be bene ficial to both the weather forecast and the prediction of air pollution. In addition, current forecasts are valid mainly for 24 h to 10 days, with reliable prediction amounting to less than a week. In fact, another forecasting at another timescale is also very important; namely, seasonal forecasts of air pollution (similar to seasonal climate prediction). This kind of prediction offers great value for the government and public in terms of long-term planning and pollution control measures; however, such a prediction service has yet to be established due to an insufficient scientific basis. Recently, such predictions have begun to be carried out at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (Yin and Wang 2016). The preliminary prediction approach and model have been developed, by considering several predictors. These predictors could on the one hand be observation-based predictors such as the preceding sea surface temperature in particular ocean areas, the sea-ice extent in the Arctic, or the snow and vegetation cover in Eurasia;whilst on the other hand they could be GCM-based predictors such as atmospheric circulation factors (Yin and Wang 2016).Preliminary test results for real-time seasonal prediction are encouraging. Indeed, in the near future, a real-time seasonal forecasting system will be set up and applied operationally.However, given the limitations of such prediction in terms of its scientific complexity and level of accuracy, the prediction should be cautiously applied.

There is no doubt that the increase in anthropogenic pollutants is the basic cause of air pollution. If the emissions were zero, the concentration of air pollutants would not exceed the standard. The problem is that even developed countries and regions in Europe and the United States cannot realize zero emissions. The current situation in China in terms of our stage of development with respect to energy means that we have to strike a balance between socioeconomic development and emissions reduction policies,and seek to solve the pollution problem under a process of development and transition towards green development.Thus, the reality for China is that economic construction and environmental protection must be coordinated and balanced.

6. Implementing stricter air pollution prevention and control policies in key areas

Scientific research institutions, governmental departments,or other organizations often try to carry out assessments on the effects of emissions reduction by comparing the air pollution between two specific years. However, this is not a reasonable approach, and the conclusions are extremely unreliable and often misleading. This is because the large interannual variability of the climate can lead to a large interannual variability of atmospheric pollution, even if the emissions do not change. Moreover, the impact of climate variability on air pollution may even exceed that of the changes in anthropogenic emissions. As a result, the interannual variation of air pollution could be largely or even mainly caused by the climate variability. Therefore, to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of climate variability and changes in emission sources is a complex and urgent task for research.

Disclosure statement

Regional meteorological conditions and local topography are closely related to the formation of heavy air pollution,and the former feature large seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Since Beijing city is located in a unique region insofar as it is surrounded by mountains and the Bohai Sea, pollutants do not diffuse easily and pollutants may be transported to and converge in Beijing.Thus, there are normally one or two days of accumulative processes before the formation of a heavy pollution event. Therefore, based on reliable weather forecasting,we should take control measures at least one or two days ahead of the air pollution occurrence, and then maintain them until the end of the pollution process.

Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41421004] and the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant number 2016YFA0600704].

References

Cai, W., K. Li, H. Liao, H. J. Wang, and L. Wu. 2017. “Weather Conditions Conducive to Beijing Severe Haze More Frequent under Climate Change.” Nature Climate Change 7: 257–262.doi:10.1038/nclimate3249.

Chan, M., E. Solheim, and P. Taalas. 2017. “Working as One UN to Address the Root Environmental Causes of Ill Health.”Bulletin of the World Health Organization 95: 1–2. doi:10.2471/BLT.16.189225.

Wang, H. J., and H. P. Chen. 2016. “Understanding the Recent Trend of Haze Pollution in Eastern China: Roles of Climate Change.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16: 4205–4211.

Wang, H. J., H. P. Chen, and J. P. Liu. 2015. “Arctic Sea Ice Decline Intensified Haze Pollution in Eastern China.” Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 8 (1): 1–9. doi:10.3878/AOSL20140081.

Yin, Z. C., and H. J. Wang. 2016. “Seasonal Prediction of Winter Haze Days in the North Central North China Plain.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16: 14843–14852. doi:10.5194/acp-16-14843-2016.

Yin, Z. C., H. J. Wang, and D. M. Yuan. 2015. “Interdecadal Increase of Haze in Winter over North China and the Huang-Huai Area and the Weakening of the East Asia Winter Monsoon(in Chinese).” Chinese Science Bulletin 60: 1395–1400.doi:10.1360/N972014-01348.

WANG Hui-Jun
《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2018年第2期文献
Preface 作者:Hui-Jun Wang,Ola M.Johannessen

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